Slim; but if Newt persists, as I think he will, it's "none".
Slim; but if Newt persists, as I think he will, it's "none".
I agree although I might put it at a higher chance than slim. It's at least a 50/50 chance to throw it to a floor fight if Rick says Newt's his V.P. and Newt continues campaigining for Rick aggressively. This might have to happen before Illinois next week...69 delegates which will all go to Romney if the current poll numbers hold across all districts. I don't think we can afford to lose that many from one of the states we have a solid chance in.
Newt’s a genius level IQ at this.
Problem is he said a couple things this week that were not correct. He indicated Ron Paul's delegates might join with him, which most people following this race closely don't think is true. He also specifically said it won't hurt Rick if he stays in the race because these contests are proportional. But going forward, 2 out of every 3 delegates are in some form of winner-take-all contests (granted a few of those stay proportional if the winner doesn't get 50%). I've seen a lot of people, even the experts claim the winner-take-all-by-district states are "proportional" which is highly misleading if not flat out incorrect. I've seen people as expert as Dick Morris get on TV and flub which states are proportional or winner-take-all. I've seen no one explain why the rules in PA, IL and WV make those contests essentially winner-take-all-by-district. So there's a lot of confusion about these races. No doubt Newt is relying on advisors and analysts to analyze them, and they may be giving him bad or incomplete advice. Would most staffers ever advise their candidate they should drop out?
If a wake-up call is going to come, it could happen in Illinois next week, where Romney is currently leading with a plurality in Clinton/Bush/Perot fashion. But it could be too late by then if Romney sweeps all the Illinois delegates that way. If the analysis shows that Newt + Rick's votes combined would have taken all those delegates from Romney, then it might become pretty clear that these guys are definitely splitting the vote with negative consequences.