Because the conservative vote is split, the liberal William Cli...er... Romney is winning.
If there were only one opponent, then Romney could overwhelm them with his money advantage and his willingness to be totally dishonest and scorch the earth.
However, that does not mean that the eve before an election that the lesser polling between Santorum and Gingrich should not encourage his supporters in some way to vote for his the other.
This is the pathway to a brokered convention with the lion’s share of delegates belonging to conservative candidates.
I think Santorum’s logic about not having a clear nominee prior to the convention is valid. Obama cannot unleash on a single opponent until that opponent is chosen, and with a late convention that means he, the media, and hollywood only have 2 months to vilify our candidate.
A brokered convention versus Obama’s billion in campaign funds is a smart strategy in my opinion.
Mitt Romney shouldn’t be on the ticket anyplace.
That’s ridiculous. I seriously doubt that most of Gingrich’s voters would consider either Romney or Santorum, since the two of them have very similar ideas except for Santorum’s currently more conservative social positions. Gingrich has entirely different ideas about government and the US future, and both Romney and Santorum are continuations of the same old, same old (what another poster described as center left).
And if Santorum dropped out, Romney would be the beneficiary, since it is cearly apparent that the GOP Establishment position (a sort of Euro-socialist nanny state) is the one that most voters want, unfortunately.
I’m hoping that Gingrich may be able to change their minds, but frankly, I think big, intrusive government has become the default position of most Americans, GOP or Dem.
Well newt and santoprum are splitting the conservative vote - there is no doubt. However romney would be winning now even if you add gingrich and santorum delegates together as romney is already to 495. If gingrich and santorum were to unite there may be a small chance of prevailing. As it is now there is way either gingrich or santorum can catch romney.
Fox News spent 3 hours last night going over and over and over and over how Newt is ruining it all for everyone. Personally, I hope Newt wins the whole thing.
I honestly want to contested convention. Personally all 3 are not that great. I would love to have a do over and a contested convention gives us that chance.
Gingrich is absolutely right through 4/4
It is already too late for any alternative to reach the magic number and beat Romney outright. Santorum did that by staying in through FL and collecting non-binding caucus "wins" to create the appearance of viability. Those obsessed with Newt's "baggage" found a shiny toy in the shape of the "sainted" ex-senator who loves to "take one for the (establishment) team".
The only strategy left to the non-Romney is to prevent him from winning. We know even Santorum's campaign admits this internally. If anyone gets out it'll only accelerate Romney's march clinching because a sizeable portion of Newt or Santorum supporters would flock to Romney rather than the alternative.
All those weeks and months Newt was leading Rick in the delegate count, the Santorum squads boosted the false narrative that Newt was giving the nomination to Romney.
Sure, Newt’s splitting the anti-Romney vote. He’s also splitting the pro-Romney attack ad money!
Maybe I am wrong, but I don't believe Perot ran in the primaries, he just came out of nowhere and declared, so it's really not the same thing.
But there is a Perot like candidate, that is going to take votes away from whomever the Republican nominee is, in the works that will be on all 50 states ballots, plus the territories. That could hand the presidency back to the current occupant.
Newt is playing the game the way the rules our written in order for the best chance to win. First of all, more early contests have changed their delegate distribution to proportional rather than winner-take-all. This gives more states and more people a chance to get their vote counted. secondly, It’s still very unclear whether Romney really can get a majority of the party. At the end, I’m sure Romney will not have 50% of all the votes casted even if he eeks out the 1,144 delegates needed. Thirdly, look at the way Romney has been getting his delegates. He has bought many of them because he can run 100 ads in Hawaii and other islands and the others don’t have the Supe Pac money to do it. So Romney can compete in every state and not even physically go there. That sounds really fair doesn’t it? That sounds like the way we really want to choose our nominee and future President, doesn’t it? Finally, there is something called a brokered convention. It existed long before this year and in the 1800s and early 1900s this is how most nominees were decided. So let the process play itself out. The brokered convention is there for a reason. It’s there when a majority of the people cannot get behind one candidate. It will all work itself out and at least when the nominee is decided, it won’t be because someone could buy radio ads in the American Samoa and the other couldn’t.
After the primaries are over and Romney falls short of 1,144, most of the delegates are released to go to whomever they wish. In July, Newt announces he would like Paul Ryan to be his running mate. He also promises Santorum and Perry jobs in the cabinet. I’d love to see it. We’ll have a balanced budget authored by Ryan and Gingrich. We’ll have a bold new energy policy. We’ll also start sending most of the power back to the states. This works for me.
I’m not a Newt supporter although I like and agree with a lot he says; however, he clearly deserves a place at the table as long as he wants. The guy essentially was in a three-way tie last night, and the idea that he’s splitting votes from someone else is absurd. Newt’s votes by definition are his votes, and he’s not taken them from anybody.
About 850 delegates remain from states with winner-take-all rules by state or by district. About 500-600 of those are at risk of being lost to Romney by Newt and Rick splitting the vote. Odds are that a significant portion of those WILL be lost to Romney, making it almost impossible for him not to hit 1,144 or be close enough to it for Ron Paul and the 100 or so unbound party delegates to put him over-the-top.
Illinois is the case in point. It has direct delegate election by district, which means whichever candidate gets the highest votes in that district, gets ALL its delegates. Romney is winning it 35-31-12-7. Just like in Ohio and Michigan, Newt will take enough votes away to give Rick second place. Except with this form of voting, Rick will get NO DELEGATES if every district follows this pattern.
Meanwhile if Newt dropped out, Newt’s share of the 400 or so delegates remaining from proportional states would most likely simply shift over to Rick.
Either Newt or Rick dropping out will make it likely we can deny Romney the nomination. If they both stay in, it makes it likely Romney will be the nominee. Those are the facts.
I think Newt’s getting bad advice from his math analyst advisors who want to keep their paychecks coming a little while longer. Or he’s got the same crack team on this that helped him get on the Virginia ballot.
Newt dropping out helps Rick in the 2/3rds of remaining winner-take-all (state/district) delegates, and can’t hurt much in the 1/3rd remaining of proportional delegates. The difference Rick could gain would probably be enough to stop Romney in both the primary and in a floor fight.
Gingrich last public statement after coming in second in Mississippi and Alabama was sounding more in the vein of reassessing after Louisiana next Saturday. Sounded like he was beginning to subtly back away from this “all the way to Tampa” business and if Santorum wins LA., the guy has not much anywhere to go.The majority of Southern states will have voted and the rest of the country seems to be wed to Santorum as the conservative choice. Also, his main money squeeze in Las Vegas is quite wealthy and as such may be quite familiar with the not throwing good money after bad rule.
When it’s 37-31-14, Newton is splitting “conservative” votes if there are any conservatives left. Newton knows what he is doing, but he believes himself mentally superior to all others, and perhaps he is. He is destined to be another Perot. I wonder what percent of 1992 Perotistas are now Newt people.
Two-State Newt’s “Southern Strategy” is awaiting to unfold in Chicago!
Two-State Newt should sponsor a contest to see who can guess what will be State No. 3.