50 years???
California has 10 left. 20 absolute max.
Well past the tipping point. Only thing saving the state so far, is that something so big, tips over slow.
Short a complete revolution of American business, leading to an industrial renaissance in America - CA is going to take the full brunt of the looming massive trade war with China.
What do you think pays for California right now?
The port of Long Beach, offloading Chicom products.
That’s not sustainable. When it ends, what’s left in the state to pay the bills?
Hollyweird? Television?
Like they’re gaining market share?
I think you’re being rather optimistic there. My estimation is “10 max, with fiscal implosion within 5.”
My reasoning is founded upon the numbers coming out of CalPERS. The public employee pension problem is just starting to explode now, and the legislature and Brown are doing nothing about it.
CalPERS continues to predicate their estimates of future pension viability on 7.25%+ rates of return. How do this comport with reality?
Well, last year, CalPERS’ return on their investments was (drum roll please!) 1.1%.
Yea, that’s right. Below the rate of inflation.
And the Fed has indicated that they’re going to keep pumping money into the liquidity trap they have created, so rates aren’t about to go up anytime soon... which means that to get yield, CalPERS has to either take on a lot more risk, or they have to move out the yield curve in maturity. Both aren’t viable options for a pension fund that is facing a rapidly increasing number of claimants.
The longshoremen Union will be getting a wake up call very soon. That port in Northern Baja is getting near completion along with the rail facility and the Panama Canal will be overhauled in about 2 years which will move a good deal of shipping away from Cal to the east coast.
Lived in Cal in the 70s and 80s and was fortunate to get out of there when I did. Thought it was great in the 70s and saw the slippage beginning in the mid 80s. I am beyond upset regarding now the libs and illegals turned a virtual paradise into a morass. Those leaving now were the last hope as they take their earnings with them leaving the state with no choice but to raise taxes to beyond insane levels on the earners and producers while allowing the moochers to suck the remaining life out of the state.
RIP
CA still has Silicon Valley and some of the worlds best universities. And, unlike Detroit, the weather is great. But, yeah, its a state living off its past.
In 50 years, they’ll be a few pristine islands of Elites surrounded by (ever rising) the Third World sea. In 10-15 years, the entire budget will go to welfare & pensions: $0 will go to legitimate Government services (law enforcement, roads, etc). All those things will have to be paid for privately—maybe even education too.
You just knew CA was commiting suicide when they elected Gov Moonbeam—again.