One thing the author doesn’t consider in the “Why Tesla investors should be worried” article is that even after EV batteries reach the point where they aren’t fit for continued EV use, they would still have years of usable life left for other less demanding applications. I have read that experts anticipate a considerable industrial market for used EV batteries. Still it is a legitimate concern and that is one reason, I haven’t signed up for a Tesla yet. However, it appears that battery technology could be on the cusp of a considerable breakthrough in terms of price and energy storage capacity. If this pans out, it could change the equation dramatically.
The result is a battery that stores 400 watt-hours of electricity per kilogram, compared to the 100-200 watt-hours/kilogram for todays lithium-ion batteries. Envia says its battery cell costs could be as low as $125 per kilowatt-hour. It’s difficult to get accurate prices automakers pay for batteries, but it’s thought to be in the neighborhood of $5-600 per kilowatt-hour. Together this means Envia has achieved a breakthrough of over twice the energy density of todays batteries, at 1/4 or less the cost.
If Envia’s battery development works out, and is commercialized, the dramatically higher energy density would mean a dramatic jump in electric car range without sacrificing vehicle weight, size or cargo capacity. It would also represent a dramatic decrease in battery pack cost, letting automakers reduce vehicle prices. However it’s not quite as dramatic a jump in energy density as the 1000 watt-hours/kilogram announced hoped for by PolyPlus.
“Envia’s cells have undergone Verification & Validation testing by the Naval Service Warfare Center, Crane Division (NSWC Crane) under the ARPA-E program. According to a summary released on Envia’s website, the NSWC was able to verify the cells have a capacity of 46 amp-hours and an energy density of 400 watt-hours/Kilogram.”
This would represent a 2X increase in power and the company is anticipating a 3/4 reduction in current prices per kilowatt/hour.
Betting on the come....has been over time, not a good plan.