Judging by your post I would say you are a "fair weather" Newtonian. You seem to have all of the negative scenarios worked out. Just as the general election is about electoral votes and not the popular vote, the primary is about delegates and not how many states a candidate wins.
At this point I would say Newt is in a strong position to move past Santorum. Then again, I AM a Newtonian.
Well, you and Newt both seem to think that his best states are yet to come. Fine, but so far it isn’t happening. This is not a matter of “having all of the negative scenarios worked out.” It is just a straightforward observation. You say that the nomination is all about delegates but the committed delegates won in the primaries are only bound for the first ballot. Newt is not going to win the nomination on the first ballot. He needs to win some more states in order to have a legitimate claim on the nomination. And if two more Southern states vote and Newt again does no better than third place, then the pro-Newt narrative will be strained to the breaking point.