You are not being honest with yourself, sorry. Go through the list. Just “pretend” that it is only Mitt and Rick. Then add up the delegates that you know Mitt will win, no matter what.
Do you REALLY think that Rick can win NY or NJ or CA or MD, just to name a few against Mitt?
Proportional or winner take all, doesn’t matter. I am looking at percentage of total needed.
There was a poll showing Santorum pushing Romney for the lead in California about two weeks back. As for NY, NJ, or MD, Rick can do much better there than Newt has proven to be the case.
Tonight on BOR, Rove said that he thought there was a good chance that Rick would win NY, and win slightly in CA. I about feel out of my chair.....
This is where you are wrong. Have you gone through every state’s rules for how it allocates it’s delegates.
Example
MD is WTA by CD + 10 delegates to the State winner. While Santorum won’t win the state, as most MD Freepers would agree he would have a good shot to win the 1st (Andy Harris, Eastern Shore, Harford, Cecil) and 6th (Bartlett, Frederick and West). That’s only 6 delegates, but if Newt stays in, what happened in MI, OH, AK, MA, OK, etc, would happen in MD and Romney could win those 6 delegates in those 2 CD’s by splitting the Anti-Romney vote.
NJ is WTA, doesn’t matter, neither has a chance there.
In NY, it is also WTA by CD similar to MD. Santorum would be concentrating on PA, but there’s about 6 CD’s here he could win off of, and while that’s only 18 delegates, it’s still 18 delegates Romney gets denied, whereas Newt might take enough support in those CD’s to once again split the Anti-Romney and allow Romney all 95 delegates.
Then there’s California. There’s may 15 CD’s I’d call conservative, if there even is that many for 45 delegates. Again, it’s about keeping Romney from getting all 172. Huckabee took enough of the conservative vote in CA in 2008 that Romney was unable to win in all but just 5 CD’s, with McCain winning the other 49.
Actually, I have added all the Romney favorable states. Start with 405.
Utah (40), DC (17), RI (15), NJ(50), PR(22), VI(7), GU(4), AS (4), NMI(4), MD(31), DE(17), CT(25), HI(9), CA(124), NY(74)
That’s another 443 delegates for Romney, puts him at 848
I also have Romney picking up the following delegates in a two-man race in the favorable Anti-Romney states:
AR(4), MO(12), WV(9), IN(6), MS(5), MT(7), KY(4), NC(16), LA(3), KS(5), NE(9), SD(6), WI(6), TX(38)
That’s another 130 delegates for Romney. Puts him at 978 delegates with all contests complete.
Now assuming that Santorum and Gingrich can combine at some point, they could have 266 Delegates.
Favorable Anti-Romney States:
AR(29), MO(33), WV(21), AL(47), IN(22), MS(33), MT(11), KY(35), NC(31), LA (40), KS(35), NE(22), SD(19), WI(36), TX(100)
That’s 514 delegates, bringing the sole person up to 780.
They would also get delegates in some of the Romney States:
RI(3), PR(1), GU(2), AS(2), NMI(2), MD(6), HI(7), CA(45), NY(19)
This is another 87 delegates, bringing the sole Anti-Romney up to 867 delegates.
There’s 4 contests not sure yet how they base out because the delegate allocation rules aren’t clear. Best guess is:
PA (41 to Santorum) (28 to Romney)
IL (44 to Romney) (24 to Santorum)
WY (13 to Romney) (13 to Santorum)
OR (9 to Romney) (13 to Santorum)
NM (8 to Romney) (9 to Santorum)
This puts Romney at about 1,080 delegates
This puts Santorum at about 967 delegates
Ron Paul has about 139 delegates
About 100 Uncommitted Superdelegates
Total: 2286
This is still not great for Santorum, but Romney would either have to win 60% of the uncommitted Superdelegates or make a deal with Ron Paul.
Still, with all 3 in the race, Mitt’s delegate numbers will be higher in the South. If that’s the case, he could very well win before the convention.