Romney is not well liked, I do not think he would win because of that.
But hey, what do I know. ;-)
The case could, and would, be made that Romney wasn’t a strong enough candidate to win the nomination. If you can’t get your base behind you, how can you expect to win in the general?
It is like a knife fight, every little bit helps, defeat Romney in the primary first, then we will deal with the next step.
If money counts for anything in winning an election, then this protracted battle helps one candidate: Obama
Add together the popular votes total so far of Santorum + Gingrich. It’s around 4 million v. 3.2 million for Romney.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html
This disparity will continue (if not increase) as the primaries continue, as Romney get just a smidgen of votes in states such as Alabama and Mississippi, and “wins” proportional-representation states with just 30%-45% of the vote. If you do the math, it looks like if both Gingrich and Santorum stay in the race, they’ll garner in the neighborhood of 60% of the popular vote (plus the clear majority of the delegates).
Now imagine at the convention what’s left of the Republican establishment trying to force-feed Romney on the the party, after 60% or more of the primary & caucus participants voted against him (and that’s not even counting those who voted for Ron Paul.) I don’t think they will be able to do it. Particularly when the obvious political move would be for the leading conservative candidate to announce, at the convention, the other as his Vice Presidential pick.
A brokered convention would see a new candidatesomeone other than Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorumenter the remaining primaries or parachute in during the convention (if no existing candidate has secured a majority of delegates). In backroom deals, either based partly on the strength of his late primary performances or only on the discretion of party leaders, he would become the nominee.
A contested convention, on the other hand, would see no dark horse enter but none of the existing candidates arrive in Tampa with a 1,144 majority of delegates. Lots of wheeling and dealing would ensue, and after several ballots a nominee would emerge from the four current candidates.
http://martingop.org/2012/02/23/gop-brokered-convention/