Super Split - Santorum's strong showing likely to prolong GOP contest

Nashville Tennessean | 3/7/12 | Michael Cass and Chas Sisk

[SmithL]

Gannett Newspaper - Link Only:

http://www.tennessean.com/article/20120307/NEWS02/303070104/Santorum-s-strong-showing-likely-prolong-GOP-contest?odyssey=mod|defcon|text|FRONTPAGE

[rovenstinez]

If Mitt is nominated, I’ll vote for Obama. I think the best solution now and future for the USA is for everything to IMPLODE upon itself, and the hard, cold harsh facts of REALITY need to hit the folks that live in the beltway right smack between their eyes, and then we can all start over again. Maybe in 4 geographical areas...let the New York lead the NE...and Texas lead in the South...and California and Seattle start their nation...
I think Obama can destroy effectively everything so we can start all over again. Obama, gets my vote

[ScottinVA]

I think Obama can destroy effectively everything so we can start all over again. Obama, gets my vote

Yeah, a scorched-earth policy always works.

[cripplecreek]

Move over George, its Rick’s fault now. LOL

[Buckeye Battle Cry]

In Ohio, Santorum carried 69 of the 88 counties. Romney’s state “victories” look like mini-presidential maps. The conservative red counties are far and wide. The blue liberal counties are piled around heavily populated urban areas. The trend is obvious - real conservatives are rejecting Romney by large margins. He cannot bring the party together.

[SmithL]

Please explain how this evil plan promotes conservative values.

[cripplecreek]

Yup Romney’s win map looks like Obama’s win map.

Rush: Romney is winning like a liberal

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2853480/posts

[Vigilanteman]

Seven reasons for Rick Santorum

1. Who has won the most states without the benefit of their own money, last election's organization or a billionaire casino sugar daddy?
   
2. Who is everybody's second choice when he isn't their first?
   
3. Who can get both the Romney people and the Gingrich people, who hate each other, to vote for him?
   
4. Who has the best record on immigration?
   
5. Who has the best plan for repealing ObamaCare? And is the only GOP candidate who didn't help write or approve legislation which helped spawn this fiasco?
   
6. Who has the best plan for expanding the American economy and strengthening American families?
   
7. Who is the closest thing we have to the "generic Republican" which polls show consistently beating Obama and is most likely to make the election about Obama's sorry record rather than about himself?

[Vigilanteman]

It doesn’t. It is the equivalent of firing on Ft. Sumter and hoping for a favorable military outcome within the first few months of a Civil War.

[Mountain Mary]

I could never vote for Obama..but won’t vote for Romney either.
I’m so sick of hearing pundits on Faux News talk about how we Conservatives will “come around” when the GOP nominee is chosen.

I can agree with you in principle about the implosion theory..except for the fact that some Supremes will be retiring in the next election cycle and would be replaced with more Sonya’s or Elena’s. Now that’s some permanent damage.

[Sam Gamgee]

Well, I simply would NOT vote for Mitt, and vote for one of the fringe candidates.

Personally, with over 400 delegates the race is over, sadly.

[fireforeffect]

Over 400 includes the nonbinding caucus votes. Actual delegates awarded is 293. Still more than Newt and Santorum combined. I use Dave Leip’s site for delegate count. RCP tends to assume the caucus votes count as delegates actually awarded.

There are still 1722 unallocated delegates out there. A’int over with yet.

I personally think the drawn-out primary will work for the R's. Keeps people active. Make them feel their votes count. last time around, by the time it got to my state everyone but McLame had dropped out. Minimal turn out. This way the down calender states feel relevant.

Remember, despair is a sin.

[JediJones]

When we implode, we’ll have our money wiped out, our businesses go out of business, rampant crime, possibly a foreign invasion. Not exactly a good scenario for restoring the country to its better days.

I also think a long primary helps. It’s also the media attention the candidates get. Any publicity is good publicity, it helps establish their brand name and the more well known they are, the more it makes people less likely to have their opinion changed by negative attacks.

Below shows how the rest of the states give Romney a much less favorable map than he’s had so far. The states are ranked according to Gallup polling from most conservative to least. Almost half the remaining delegates come from the conservative states. Romney only won two of those so far, both caucuses, but only Missouri and Kansas remain of those that are caucuses. He will win Utah, but I don’t know about any others. North Carolina and Pennsylvania from the moderate states should be competitive for Santorum/Gingrich. So there are about 797 delegates to go from states that I think should favor them (although I’m not clear which of the conservative states are Romney-favorable Mormonland).

Romney’s got a good shot at the remaining 619 delegates from other moderate and liberal states, but even if he got all of them, those alone wouldn’t get him a majority of delegates. So it all comes down to the margin of victory and delegate allocation. It doesn’t look like Romney has an easy path to getting a majority of delegates. And there only 3 or 4 caucus states left, which hurts Ron Paul’s ability to get more delegates.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/152459/Mississippi-Conservative-State-Liberal.aspx

TOTAL DELEGATES BY STATE (1144 needed to win):
CON 909 (670 to go)
MOD 661 (278 to go)
LIB 605 (468 to go)
??? 32

CON Mississippi (primary) - 40
CON Utah (primary) - 40 (WTA)
*VOTED* CON Wyoming (caucus) - 29 [ROMNEY]
CON Alabama (primary) - 50 (WTA)
CON Louisiana (primary) - 46
CON Arkansas (primary) - 36
*VOTED* CON Oklahoma (primary) - 43 (WTA) [SANTORUM]
CON Nebraska (primary) - 35
*VOTED* CON Idaho (caucus) - 32 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* CON Tennessee (primary) - 58 (WTA) [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* CON South Carolina (primary) – 25 [GINGRICH]
*VOTED* CON North Dakota (caucus) - 28 [SANTORUM]
CON South Dakota (primary) - 28
CON Kansas (caucus) - 40
CON Texas (primary) - 155
*VOTED* CON Georgia (primary) - 76 [GINGRICH]
CON Indiana (primary) - 46
CON West Virginia (primary) - 31
CON Montana (primary) - 26
CON Missouri (caucus) – 52
CON Kentucky (primary) - 45
MOD North Carolina (primary) - 55
*VOTED* MOD Ohio (primary) - 66 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Virginia (primary) - 49 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Arizona (primary) - 29 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Florida (primary) - 50 (WTA) [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* MOD Iowa (caucus) – 28 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Michigan (primary) - 30 [ROMNEY]
MOD New Mexico (primary) - 23
MOD Pennsylvania (primary) - 72
MOD Wisconsin (primary) - 42
*VOTED* MOD Colorado (caucus) - 36 [SANTORUM]
*VOTED* MOD Minnesota (caucus) - 40 [SANTORUM]
MOD Delaware (primary) - 17 (WTA)
*VOTED* MOD Nevada (caucus) - 28 [ROMNEY]
MOD Illinois (primary) - 69
*VOTED* MOD Alaska (caucus) - 27 [ROMNEY]
LIB Maryland (primary) - 37
*VOTED* LIB Maine (caucus) - 24 [ROMNEY]
*VOTED* LIB Vermont (primary) - 17 [ROMNEY]
LIB Connecticut (primary) - 28
*VOTED* LIB New Hampshire (primary) – 12 [ROMNEY]
LIB Rhode Island (primary) - 19
LIB New Jersey (primary) - 50 (WTA)
LIB California (primary) - 172
LIB Hawaii (caucus) - 20
LIB New York (primary) - 95
*VOTED* LIB Washington (caucus) - 43 [ROMNEY]
LIB Oregon (primary) - 28
*VOTED* LIB Massachusetts (primary) - 41 [ROMNEY]
LIB District of Columbia (primary) - 19 (WTA)
??? U.S. Virgin Islands (caucus) - 9
??? Puerto Rico (primary) - 23

[JediJones]

Popular vote of Rick + Newt now equals 3,784,760 compared to Romney’s 3,194,834. I would assume Ron Paul’s 900,099 would split evenly between conservatives and liberals. So even though us conservatives are the majority of voters, the elites want us to “come around” to Romney. Yeah, right.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/republican_vote_count.html

[Sam Gamgee]

Is despair a sin? How about those with clinical depression?

My problem is none of the candidates is particularly doing it for me.

[Sam Gamgee]

Unless the establishment is somehow cheating, who are these 3 million dunces voting for Romney? Is it they just think a center left candidate is more electable?

[fireforeffect]

Me neither, I am pulling for the least worst now. Anybody but Obama.

As with most elections I am voting against, not for.

I equate despair with quiting. Not just giving up, but also those cry that they can not get what the want so they are going to take their ball and go home.

[JediJones]

They’re probably like this “Republican strategist” Dee Dee Benkie that FOX had on last night. She said Rush and Newt were “he-man women haters.”

http://www.facebook.com/people/Dee-Dee-Benkie/699957844

Mitt also gets 98% of the Mormons. And, yeah, some are just dimwits who think “he can beat Obama” after the RINO media has repeated that about 10 million times.

Republican does not equal conservative, now more than ever.

[Sam Gamgee]

I guess it is important sometimes who the messenger is. If some liberal Republican came out trying to encourage voters to vote for Romney, say like David Frum, or other milquetoast Republican, I could hardly blame voters for taking their ball and going home. I guess it comes down to being treated with respect.

[Sam Gamgee]

To Dee Dee I would say I don't care if Gingrich eats puppies, if he is qualified for the job and will work to clean up our fiscal mess, he's my man. Hell he can make fun of my Italian heritage until the cows come home. It has nothing to do with the job. With Obama in the White House, I would vote for a former sex trade worker to get him out of there.