“Any prelude to a first strike will be an EMP attack. “
Yes, if the enemy has lots of nukes and can get a missile 200 miles above the center of CONUS without being detcted and shot down on the first try.
A rogue nation will be far more likely to smuggle the nuke in disguised as a bale of pot or cocaine, and deliver it by van to some city.
Why do you think the electromagnetic field is weakening?
Believe me, the Russians will throw everything in a first strike.Russian doctrine is “Only the offensive leads to the attainment of victory over the enemy. As a type of combat, the offensive has incontestable advantages over the defense. The attacker has broad capabilities for launching surprise strikes, for the rapid exploitation of the results of nuclear attacks” This is from a Russian military strategist Col. Sidorenko
On the Earths magnetic field:http://www.science20.com/make_love_not_war/blog/earth%E2%80%99s_weakening_geomagnetic_force_and_possible_polar_reversal-76775
Because the geeks at NOAA say it's in a decline based on their measurements. NASA is aware of, and adjusts for a particular spot east of South America. It weirds out their satellites, or something.
FedGov is spending billions on EMP protection. They seem to take it seriously.
I'm much less concerned about EMP from nukes than I am from the sun.
/johnny