Supply and Demand are certainly driving the market. In the futures market, which is what is usually discussed, it is the expected Supply and Demand. But when looking at absolute dollars, then you have to take into account the value of the dollar as well. You've got it.
Given all that Obama has done to drive up the price of oil, all he has failed to do to bring it down, and all he has done to weaken the dollar and the economy as a whole, how all of those things have effected perception and consequently the market value of both oil futures and the dollar itself, and finally that gas was $1.89/gal when he was sworn in... do you believe that even reversing those policies, returning to a Reagan like approach to the economy, and implementing the other plans Newt has proposed, that the damage done by Obama is simply too great to realistically expect to return to $2.50/gal? Or is your issue not that a return to $2.50 is implausible, but that it's just dishonest for Newt to base his campaign on the premise that he can make good on such an absolute line in the sand?