I don’t know if can regain it, I hope so, but I am curious as to how exactly he lost it.
I don’t think it was R0mney attcks adds in any particular state, because he seems down in every state since SC. So I am wondering was it something he said or did? It’s hard to figure out as he is certainly articulate.
Chris, I think we don’t understand it because we weren’t in Iowa or Florida. When I see people from those states or the media analysts who spend time there describing the volume of attack ads, they cannot find the words to express the magnitude and horror of them.
The key though, is that the voters in the subsequent states seem to inevitably view that candidate as damaged goods after they lose the state. I think for people who are paying very little attention to politics, they inevitably get a “good” feeling about winners and a “bad” feeling about losers. They assume that those people in the previous state made a logical decision and they trust their judgment.
The problem in this primary is the Not-Romney effect. Romney has consistently been deemed unacceptable by a majority of voters. So they will not gravitate to him based on momentum alone. Although one would have to say he’s VERY SLOWLY building support. Romney has definitely reached higher national highs this year compared to last, and his “floor” has risen from 20 points to 25 points. He’s always had by far the largest solid base of any candidate and nothing that’s been done to him has chipped away one bit at it.
What the Not-Romney means is that we have entered into a cycle of Romney winning a state or two, conservatives panicking and delivering a HUGE win to whichever conservative they like best that week, Romney desperately attacking that candidate and destroying them in the next state, conservatives panicking again and switching to ANOTHER conservative candidate to try and beat Romney with a new weapon, and Romney attacking again...
Which means what might happen on Tuesday is Santorum getting destroyed by Romney, and conservatives again looking elsewhere for the man to take on Romney. That is why Newt could rise again on Super Tuesday. My fear is though without any punches having been landed on Romney lately, by Santorum missing the mark and Newt going “nice” again, that he will keep slowly building that core base of support for himself. Since he’s already ahead in votes and delegates, that makes him the likely primary winner. But the other dynamic is the imbalance in type of states that have voted...most of the states so far have been in the bottom 25 by conservative rank, with only a couple in the top 25. Romney may build his standing but it still might not be enough to pull off wins in those mostly Southern states.