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Rick gaining in Arizona? Wow!

American Research Group, Inc.

Presidential Primary Preference:

Arizona

Likely Republican

Primary Voters Feb 23-24 2012

Romney 39%
Santorum 35%

Gingrich 11%
Paul 9%

Other 1%
Undecided 5%

Mitt Romney leads in the Arizona Republican presidential primary with 39%. Romney is followed by Rick Santorum with 35%, Newt Gingrich with 11%, and Ron Paul with 9%.

In a similar survey conducted February 13-14, 2012, Romney was leading with 38%, followed by Santorum with 31%, Gingrich with 15%, and Paul with 11%. Support for Santorum has increased 4 percentage points since the last survey and support for Romney has increased 1 percentage point.

Romney leads Santorum 50% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they have already voted through early voting.

WOW! Santorum leads Romney 41% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will vote on February 28.

Santorum leads with 44% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 34%, Gingrich with 18%, and Paul with 1%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 44%, followed by Santorum with 25%, Paul with 18%, and Gingrich with 3%.

Santorum leads Romney 43% to 32% among men, followed by Gingrich with 13% and Paul with 10%. Romney leads Santorum 47% to 26% among women, followed by Gingrich with 9% and Paul with 8%.

Santorum leads Romney 43% to 32% among men...

Romney leads Santorum 47% to 26% among women...

Herein lies the crux of the problem for both Newt and Santorum. Contrary to what some have said, Newt's problems with women voters have nothing to do with his marital history. The problem for both Newt and Rick with women is that women even in the Republican party are heavily going for Romney, even while men are going heavily against him. I have yet to see polling or interviews which even attempt to explain this gender gap. I can only speculate that it's because a lot of even Republican women don't like conservative views, they just plain don't understand the issues, or they are voting solely on looks (but that is less of a factor with Romney compared to Santorum).