GALLUP DAILY: GOP Ballot Tracking (Santorum 31, Romney 30, Gingrich 16; End of the Santorum Surge?)

Gallup ^ | 2/25/12 | Gallup

[BCrago66]

Look at the chart at the bottom of the page:

Santorum's 10 point over Romney lead has been cut down to a 1 point lead...in just 4 days. Unfortunately for Gingrich supporters (such as myself), Newt has stabilized at 16, and it look like Romney, not Newt, has been the chief beneficiary of Santorum's recent polling dive.

[American Constitutionalist]

Santourm is closing in on Romney in Arizona, so contrary to some of those who are gleefully hoping for Santorum's demise, no, Arizona and Michigan matter only now in the next few days.
It's amazing how some of these folks are so anti-Romney, but yet ? they are rooting and hoping for Santorum's demise.

[jeltz25]

that’s actually not true about Obama and McCain. If you look back at the polls, the debates really made little difference. Obama didn’t see any big boosts from any of them.

It’s also hard to tell because the market was collapsing by 30% over the same time frame as the debates. as well as McCain’s suspension and then support for TARP.

But I don’t really think the debates had all that much influence on the outcome. I don’t recall Obama doing all that well. Basically his entire debate strategy was “I’m not a Republican and McCain is” with a hearty helping of “I’m not Bush and McCain is”.

McCain also got in trouble in that the 1st debate was supposed to be on foreign policy which was his strength but they shifted it to domestic policy because of the economic meltdown and bailout votes. And even McCain would admit the economy wasn’t his strong suit.

basically, though, once the economy went south after Lehman collapsed the die was cast. the debates didn’t relaly matter all that much.

[jeltz25]

I’ll tell you how Newt wins. The same way Clinton and Reagan won. The economy is in bad enough shape by the election that people simply want something different. That’s the same way any Republican is going to win. Newt, Rick, Mitt, whoever.

Look back at the polls from April 1992. Bush41 had a 10 pt lead on Clinton. I’m sure many dems were saying “how will Clinton win?”. Look back at the polls from the spring of 1980. Carter had a double digit lead over Reagan. Many were probably saying “how can Reagan win?”

Both of them won because eventually Americans had enough of the incumbent.

If we get to the fall and gas is $5 a gallon, inflation is on the rise, job growth has slowed, stagnated, or even started to go negative, Newt will have a very good chance to win, close to as good as anyone else.

Seriously, where do you think Obama will be if gas is at $5? Where do you think he’ll be if unemployment heads back up to 9% or more? If the market drops 10%? 20%? More?

Newt could well win on gas prices alone.

As for Rick sweeping the midwest. the latest MI poll vs Obama shows Obama with a 26 pt lead over Rick, the latest WI poll has him up by 11, and the latest PA poll has him up by 8, so I don’t know if I’d say he has an excellent chance of sweeping all of them.

But look, if gas goes up to the high $4, past $5, Newt will have a great chance of winning, as will any Republican.

[Theodore R.]

To those thinking third party, look at these 2000 TX general election returns to gauge the numerical futility of such an action:

President/Vice-President
George W. Bush /Dick Cheney REP 3,799,639 59.29%
Al Gore /Joe Lieberman DEM 2,433,746 37.98%
Harry Browne /Art Olivier LIB 23,160 0.36%
Ralph Nader /Winona LaDuke GRN 137,994 2.15%
Pat Buchanan /Ezola Foster IND 12,394 0.19%
Howard Phillips /J. Curtis Frazier W-I 567 0.00%
James “Jim” Wright /Leonard L. Foster W-I 74 0.00%
David McReynolds /Mary Cal Hollis W-I 63 0.00%

---

Race Total 6,407,637

[katiedidit1]

GO NEWT!

[CitizenM]

I see your point, and I thought Obama was irritating, haughty, arrogant, and childish during the debates, but: Many of the people I have talked with who voted for Obama did so because they said they thought he did better in the debates. Now maybe the polls didn't reflect a bump for him after each debate, but in the end I believe there are many who liked his ridicule, sarcasm, and caustic comments...and his energy. And that did win many votes. Yes, we all agree that his African American base was always there and even Obama and his handlers knew it and took advantage of that.

This time I just hope and pray that whoever goes face to face with him is a sharp as a tack, quick with the come-backs, and able to expose how very ignorant, hateful, and uninformed/misinformed Obama really is.

[Kenny]

This poll also includes Romney’s debate bump which I’m sure has already evaporated. I doubt Romney’s ahead.

[dandiegirl]

Newt is giving great speeches everywhere he goes. The media, including, FOX rarely mentions his name or ever play any exerts from his fabulous speeches. The word has gone out not to promote Newt and not to mention his name unless you just can’t avoid it. Makes me sick. He is clearly the only one that can take down BO. The press doesn’t like him cause he can take them down too. Sad that fellow conservatives are not voting for him. Rick can’t take on the Chicago machine and survive. He’s a great man, but now is not his time—all in my opinion of course.

[PapaNew]

I was for Palin, then Cain, then Newt. Newt seems like a crap shoot. Something happened to him at the most critical juncture in the campaign in the Florida debates. He was ahead. But curiously, he seemed quite uncomfortable being ahead. I strongly suspect he got terrible advice about "don't lose" instead of "do whatever it takes to win, pull out all the stops." The result was a weak Gingrich in maybe the two most important debates (Florida). Florida was the turning point for Gingrich. He didn't attack when attack was clearly called for. There was little passion. He basically blew it.

Now that he's behind, he seems comfortable again and is roaring like a lion. I don't know. Something about maybe Palin running in 2016 (?)

God help our beloved country.

[U-238]

Its not the end of the surge. There is still plenty of delegates out there up for grabs.

[AmericanInTokyo]

It’s proportionate delegates, not winner take all in Michigan, so either way, Santorum will be adding handsomely to his delegate total. Neither of the other two guys, Gingrich and Paul, is going to get NOTHING that night. Foregone conclusion. A victory there will be icing on the cake. This thing goes on to states where Santorum is very competitive and in the lead. The race goes on. Just like the old days of the GOP where the thing was not decided until June or so. So be it.

[Theodore R.]

Governor Brewer just put Mittens over the top with her endorsement. I wonder if she first consulted John McPain.

[Theodore R.]

Newt will have a great chance of winning

A lot has changed since SC.