Posted on 02/25/2012 8:08:08 AM PST by lilyfreeper
It is becoming quite clear that the conservative base of the Republican Party is driving the car. These voters prefer someone from the pull-no-punches brand of conservatism that created the tea party movement in 2009 and handed Republicans their House majority in 2010. It’s certainly the GOP’s right and choice to do that. The calendar, though, says 2012. The mood of the broader electorate—and, specifically, independents—appears to be very different. If you see any of Obama’s advisers looking bruised from head to toe, it might be from pinching themselves in disbelief.
Simply put, the passion and energy of the Republican Party today may well fail to produce a nominee with a decent chance of winning in November. My assumption was that Romney would be the nominee and would make a good run. Now, I have begun to doubt both propositions. His odds of winning the nomination are growing longer. And even if he does, he has twisted and turned himself into a human pretzel. I’m not sure how electable he is. The alternatives, however, seem even less so.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
I just do not get it: Why do all these self-styled experts think that Romney was so much more likely to succeed than Bob Dole or John McCain?
And what is it that they say about assumptions?
However, Cook's idea of a good run is a GOP nominee who would ensure Obama's re-election.
And if Tea Party values are so politically unmarketable, then how did they trigger such a massive GOP landslide in 2010? Nothing has really changed since as far as Obama's hard-left policies - if anything, they have been shown to be an utter failure - witness all of the green-oriented failures Obama has promoted.
I'd agree. With $5 gasoline, 9% unemployed, and 19% underemployed, I don't see how Obama is electable. My conclusion is that nobody can possibly be elected in November.
Charlie Cook is a leftwing pol. He’s part of the MSM machine whose job it is to talk Obama up...and the GOP down.
No surprise.
This election could be more like Bush I's 2nd run where some unknown governor from the relatively unimportant state of Arkansas managed to become president.
Even if Santorum is the Republican candidate, and even if he decides to go whole-hog Moral Majority / Christian Coalition, he might still beat Obama.
“These numbers would suggest that absent any national tide or trend, Democrats might be expected to lose a dozen or so seats in the House and pick up a seat or two, possibly three, in the Senate. Again, this forecast presumes the lack of any dynamic that would push either party forward or back — essentially an “all politics is local” election.”
In other words, who cares what he thinks at this point? By the time his predictions, or anyone’s for that matter, have any substantive predictive value, it will be more obvious to everyone where things are headed.
“These numbers would suggest that absent any national tide or trend, Democrats might be expected to lose a dozen or so seats in the House and pick up a seat or two, possibly three, in the Senate. Again, this forecast presumes the lack of any dynamic that would push either party forward or back — essentially an “all politics is local” election.”
In other words, who cares what he thinks at this point? By the time his predictions, or anyones for that matter, have any substantive predictive value, it will be more obvious to everyone where things are headed.
Obama is going to lose on his failed energy policy. All any of the “unelectable” conservatives has to say, is “those are my personal views, and they are enacted into law or policy only if passed on by the House and Senate and found to be Constitutional by the courts. So they are much like President Obama choosing not to wear jewelry for Ramadan.” Meanwhile, Obama spokesmen are ridiculing “drill here , drill now” as fantasy akin to “planting magic beans “ or “sprinkling pixie dust” to solve energy woes. The real fantasy ,however, is that you can leave trillions of dollars of resources in the ground and not blow a hole in the economy. So Obama goes on from windmills, which don’t work; to electric cars, which no one but his cronies wants to buy; to algae. If gasoline goes over $4 and stays there, he’ll lose; if it doesn’t, that will mean that the rising cost has already blown a hole in the economy, and he’ll lose. It’s the same problem as four years ago, and he did “zerO” to fix it. That’s where the election will be framed, and the Obama people know it and are panicked. That’s why they’re out there setting up all the straw men.
He!!, why did they think Dole or McCain were likely to succeed in the first place?
It's scorched earth, their guy or 0bama!
Do you honestly think the establishment cares beyond whats best for the party?
Charley Cook: Republicans will fail [if I do my job right]
Same people thought Reagan would lose.
He's younger and better-looking, and has a more pleasant manner on TV.
Given the debased state of the current electorate, the experts have a point. If the race really is for the job of National Talk-Show Host, Romney the the most Clintonesque candidate in either party. :)
Perhaps because re-apportionment has not favored the GOP anywhere near as much as people had thought. The Dems did a good job in the states they control in squeezing out the most beneficial maps and the Republicans have been stymied in several states where it was thought we would really gain a lot of seats.
Cook and Rothernberg aren't perfect, but they are two of the best in the business. I think Romney could compete and perhaps win, but he isn't a conservative and there is a good reason the GOP base is avoiding him. As we are trying to nominate an actual conservative to represent what is supposed to be a conservative party, I think it is fair to say our chances are sliding due to the relatively poor options we actually had this cycle. I believe Newt gives us our best shot - at least for a hail mary win. Other than that though, there is only Rick left and a Santorum nomination will lead to a landslide GOP defeat of epic proportions. So yeah, I'd say our chances began fading the minute the actual GOP candidate lineup with known - assuming we wanted to nominate an actual conservative anyway.
Here’s how we do it:
Win the 2008 McLame states (not that difficult)
Flip Indiana (I’ve got that one covered - it’s a lock)
Flip Ohio and Florida (very possible)
Flip Pennsylvania (difficult?) or flip VA + NC (possible)
I think everyplace else is either committed to Dems or not big enough to be significant.
We have $4 per gallon gasoline, fast on its way to $6.50 per gallon.
Examine just WHY gasoline, though plentiful according to stocks on hand and immediately available reserves, shot up to $4/gallon or so in September and October 2008, yet had dropped to less than $2/gallon by the time Obama took the oath of office.
It was speculators then, just as now. People notice immediately if the price of gas is rising, but not so much when it falls. There are competing groups of speculators, those who will bid up the futures delivery of gasoline (or other commodities, for that matter), thereby panicking others to get in on the high and rising market, then commencing a dump just before the general perception comes to people that are otherwise sensible about such matters, realize the quoted price is unsustainably high, and take a loss while liquidating. Menwhile, the bottom feeders that had engineered the price spike in the first place are scrounging around and snapping up all these discounted sales for which the previous holder had taken such a drubbing, and deliver on their contracts at the discounted price, but with still a healthy margin for themselves.
One of the participants in this scheme in 2008 was the George Soros financial octopus, initiating internal trades among their several dummy companies, and therefore creating the panic atmosphere that led to the sharp price rise. Since by this time they were playing with other peoples’ money, they could well afford to dump AFTER the election of 2008, and still come out ahead financially, meanwhile having created an issue which put their figurehead in office.
But this time, there are several other participants in the price run-up, very likely a consortium of banks and large holding companies, manipulating the price ahead of time, with the goal of providing relatively LOW prices BEFORE the 2012 election, thereby “proving” that the Obama plan for economic recovery is working.
Yet nobody will call shullbit on this tactic.
You might follow that with the reality that the Republicans gained, what, 40+ seats in the House and 5-6 in the Senate? LOL, I forget now what the raw numbers were, but it would be useful to cite them here.
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