I thought up until recently that Israel would make a pre-emptive strike.
I now think it more likely that The Great Middle East War will begin with a missile
barrage against Israel from Gaza, Lebanon and Syria. With so many bio and chem
weapons having been unleashed upon the world because of the Arab spring fiasco
it will be too tempting to use the liberated Libyan and Syrian weapons and so
they will be fired at Israel.
Israel will respond with a barrage of neutron weapons to kill everything near
all enemy launch sites. Rinse/repeat as needed.
Israel will then take off the gloves, she will at that moment stand on the world stage
as a strategic equal with the USA, Russia, China and France in the ability to deliver
city buster thermonuclear weapons on any city in the world. Israel has the nuclear
stockpile and the delivery systems to place them directly on any location. the fact that
Russia has far more deliverable nuclear weapons only means they can make the rubble
bounce longer...it does not mean their arsenal is more powerful since Israel can
if pushed destroy all large Russian cities.
Israel will point the finger of blame for the use of the chem/bio weapons at Iran
since it will be Iran’s proxies firing them.
Israel will IMO at this point utterly destroy south Lebanon and the major cities of
Syria and Iran. You simply do not get to walk away from an attempt to once again
gas the Jews.
The great danger at this point, with Iran, Syria and Lebanon destroyed is that Russia
could make the mistake of moving against Israel... this would be the start of a world war.
IMO Israel probably has battlefield neutron weapons and selectable yield thermonuclear weapons that can be delivered by sub launched cruise missiles, cruise missiles launched from stealthy long-range drones, and also deliverable worldwide using the same launch vehicles they use to orbit satellites. No city can be protected from such an arsenal using today’s anti-missile technology.
Some people kid themselves that the Israeli arsenal is rather low tech compared to Russia’s or ours. Don’t be fooled, after all it was basically a bunch of Jews that created nuclear tech back in the 40’s. Nuclear ambiguity
has been Israel’s tactic for decades but I don’t doubt what they are capable of.
“””””””””””””””””””””2IMO Israel probably has battlefield neutron weapons and selectable yield thermonuclear weapons that can be delivered by sub launched cruise missiles, cruise missiles launched from stealthy long-range drones, and also deliverable worldwide using the same launch vehicles they use to orbit satellites. No city can be protected from such an arsenal using today’s anti-missile technology.”””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Quit smoking that:)
Israely attack on Russia is too much even by Clancy’s standard, let alone real life.
I once againt repeat as I always did in threads like that, there is a single player really interested in attack on Iran by US and allies.
It is Russia, one of top independent oil producers and still world power with extensive military and diplomatic capabilities.
Current Russian policy towards Iran is nowhere near real support. It is just encouraging a suicidal maniac to jump from a roof into a crowd to kill himself and innocent passers. All this diplomatic posture is nothing but keeping such a patient as far from cops and doctors as possible as soon as they still can prevent things coming out of control too much.
It is also to manipulate western decision makers who kept a Cold War zero sum thinking on making international policy strictly opposite to Russian posture.
I can’t get what American interest in attacking Iran, even if it really has an ability to have a nuke and it is questionable if it really can.
Note, Russia refused to sell any advanced long range SAMs to Iran for one reason or another and only supplied them with a few overpriced point defence units which are of no use against all out strike.
Russians themself aren’t interested in Iran with nukes. If there won’t be a western attack against it they’ll find a way to sabotage Iranian nuke program just after getting paid for it.
But they still prefer to make it with someone’s else hands for diplomatic reasons.
There are numerous pros for Russia in this case.
First they are getting paid by Iran for a nuke program which turns fruitless and brings no potential future threat for Russia after being destroyed.
Second they are getting abilities to expand into caucasus and central asia to chop a few muslim heads without a bad press as soon as liberal journalists distracted with “awful US atrocities against another nation”.
Third they have a mess in a region to propagate against US and gain influence.
They also have an oil market destabilized with growing price to get enormous profit out of it while US is to suffer with $10+gas.
China and Walmart underclasses in US are targeted as well since China is an oil consumer, using commodities to make cheap (not so cheap in a future) plastic exports.