They can do it but again logistics comes into play. This air battle will dwarf the Battle of Britain and War over Europe.
My Thesis:
They may strech the IAF to the limits. Many on these facilities are underground so a 5000 pound bomb will not cut it.A reasonable expectation that by 2010 Iran could pose a serious threat to its neighbors and Israel by creating enough of an inventory of nuclear weapons to deter an Israeli strike.
Take in the Factors:
1.Iran obtains a modern surface-to-air missile (SAM) defense system, such as the Russian S-300 PMU2—Favorit (currently in negotiation)—giving Iran an advanced 2.Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) capability in addition to an advanced SAM Air Defense System.
3.Development of a maritime capability to threaten commercial shipping and Naval Forces in the Persian Gulf and possibly interrupt the flow of oil through the Straits of Hormuz.
4.Possession of highly accurate short, medium and long range ballistic missiles capable of carrying Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD).
5.Use of a number of trained and controlled counter insurgency groups to increase the threat of asymmetric attacks against Israel (part of the scenario of the Turning Point 3 exercises).
A recent study indicates that although the task is daunting, a military strike by Israel is possible utilizing a flight pattern along the Syrian-Turkish border, then over a small portion of Iraq, then into Iran and back the same route.
glimpse at the target facilities provides a picture of what is required to destroy or incapacitate them for a long period of time. It also shows a tremendous effort to provide “ built-in protection” for what it claims is a peaceful nuclear energy program.
The strike force required for this mission:
Target if 2 PG Bombs if 1 PG Bomb
Facility: are carried: is carried:
Natanz 25 F-15F 50 F-15F
Esfahan 3 F-16I 5 F-16I
Arak 4 F-16I 8 F-16I
Total: 25 F-15E + 7 F-16I 50 F-15E + 13 F-16I
• F-15E Empty Weight plus Maximum Fuel = 66,831 lbs;
• F-15E Take off Gross Weight = 81,000 lbs;
• So each F-15E will still be capable of carrying an extra 10,000 lbs, 2 BLU-113; 5,000 lb class warheads (2 GBU-28 PG Bombs).
The total suggested attack force could be 25 F-15E for strike and 7 F-16I, with 38 F-16I for Air Escort/Fighter Sweep and Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD). This means the total allocated strike force against nuclear targets in Iran is 70 aircraft—well within the Israeli practice exercises of 100 air-craft.
In the event of an Israeli attack what role will Mr. Obama assign those blue water ships he has placed in the narrow confines of the Persian Gulf? Will they join the attack, violate Iranian airspace to rescue downed pilots? Will the Iranians attack them with shore based anti ship missiles?