I don't have a crystal ball and could be completely full of sh!t.
Hope that makes you feel better.
So was I.
My point was...going all the way back thru all GOP popular-vote elections...in fact, going all the way back to 1844...15 of the 40 POTUS elections were won by men who didn't win the "majority" of voters.
Clinton in '92 and Nixon in '68 won with 43%.
Abraham Lincoln won in 1860 with less than 40%.
George Bush won in 2000 with less than 48%.
(IOW, you don't necessarily need a "majority" of actual voters from a given election)
This election, the "anti" #s are high enough on ALL of the 5 candidates -- including Obama -- that any ONE of them will have trouble securing 45% of the actual voters who vote.
(That's what I meant by you setting the bar higher than what might be required to win...And, don't forget that a POTUS candidate could actually lose the popular vote and win on electoral votes...making even a popular-vote win unnecessary)