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A Brokered Convention Could Be Dangerous for GOP
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 17, 2012 | Sean Trende

Posted on 02/17/2012 11:54:10 PM PST by neverdem

For the past two weeks, I've commented on the increased possibility of a brokered Republican convention. This is a scenario where no candidate manages to claim a majority of the delegates, and the convention deadlocks.

At that point anything can happen. Candidates can combine forces, urging their delegates to support another candidate (usually in exchange for a vice presidential nod or cabinet appointment). Or the convention can turn to an outside candidate in an attempt to break the deadlock.

The latter possibility has caused some excitement among GOP’ers dissatisfied with the current field. After all, a brokered convention could end up drafting one of their favored candidates, such as Mitch Daniels, Paul Ryan or Chris Christie. The idea is that this person could then unite the party in a way that none of the four current contenders has been able to.

This is certainly the upside of such a scenario. And one argument in particular supports it: The remaining field of candidates is clearly very weak. While it isn’t the weakest in my lifetime, it gives the 1996 Republican contenders and the 2004 Democratic group a run for their money.

So if you look at the 2012 field and conclude that none of them can defeat President Obama, then a brokered convention probably makes sense for Republicans. In other words, if you believe the GOP couldn’t do any worse than Ron Paul, Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, or Newt Gingrich, then there’s little to be lost with a brokered convention.

I wouldn’t personally endorse that view, as I continue to believe that this election is about Obama, and that his re-election chances are quite weak regardless of his opponent. Reasonable minds can certainly disagree, but if you conclude that one of the remaining four could win, I think the upside of...

(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: brokeredconvention
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To: Lancey Howard

He does mention her. See post #9. More as a doomsday scenario. These people have no core values.


21 posted on 02/18/2012 12:30:41 AM PST by Moorings
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To: Navy Patriot; no dems

Two anti-Palin movies are getting ready to hit theaters, one serious drama hit piece and one sci-fi mocking hit piece.


22 posted on 02/18/2012 12:32:27 AM PST by ansel12 (Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history.)
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To: FReepers
The funds raised in these FReepathons go to pay our current quarter expenses. But we're also going to try to replace some of our older servers and failing equipment this year so we're going to add a little extra to our FReepathon goals. John is estimating ten to fifteen thousand to do this and I'd like to get it all in place and working before the election cycle is fully heated up, so we'll try to bring in a little extra now, if we can, and the rest next quarter.

Jim Robinson



Click to Donate!

23 posted on 02/18/2012 12:33:12 AM PST by onyx (SUPPORT FREE REPUBLIC, DONATE MONTHLY. If you want on Sarah Palin's Ping List, let me know.)
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To: LALALAW

It would certainly draw the attention of the nation and with our instant communications in the 21st Century the healing of the party divisions would take place very quickly.


24 posted on 02/18/2012 12:33:19 AM PST by Nextrush (PRESIDENT SARAH PALIN IS MY DREAM)
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To: neverdem
What I would like to see happen-I would want Newt and Palin to team up and begin campaigning steady like now-noone could stop these 2 reformers-the lefty media, the party bosses, no payoff back room deals, could stop this team- we would by pass any GOP trickery at a brokered convention because if it goes there, I would image the RNC will have already picked candidates that we, conservatives, will have no say in. If Palin, does not do this soon, then onto a brokered convention, so Newt still has a chance, since he has been in the battle. If Palin waits too long, I suggest it's possible that the base will be fractured in long term. Voters are already getting a sense in which their voices are not being heard/nor respected/so that sense of giving up or too numb to care any further is setting in over time. I know Palin can make a positive difference(only to campaign-if she doesn't want to enter the race) She is holding back her cards-if she doesn't help Newt soon, she will have a difficult chance at the convention where as the party has the control. In a race, she and Newt have the control. Newt deserves the presidency. The others are doing anything to have it. Surely, the woman sees this as well.
25 posted on 02/18/2012 12:42:45 AM PST by Christie at the beach (I like Newt and would love to see political dead bodies on the floor.)
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To: no dems

“4.There is no time for party wounds to heal.”

Ha! The Republicans are so splintered and entrenched with their own candidates...Romney vs Not Romney...now that it would take a miracle to unite them.

One plus about a brokered convention is that it would send the Obama campaign into unknown territory very fast depending on who the eventual nominee is. They wouldn’t have the time to do the kind of oppo research that they usually do.

They would be verklempt. lol


26 posted on 02/18/2012 12:47:30 AM PST by dixiechick2000 (This hobbit is looking for her pitchfork...God help the GOP if I find it.)
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One hundred and eleventy billion jugs of wine later, I can now speak frankly

The GOP destroyed itself long ago by

1) pushing McRomneyBushDole non-stop for at least the last year

2) being non-stop spineless ****** since the beginning of time. The examples of this are too many to list. Really,
name one issue that is near and dear to conservatives, that the GOP either does not utterly cave on, or mishandle to laughable status.

I can’t say how sick I am of issues that we should have the high ground on where even here on FR everybody gets excited about, to just have each and every one of them either disappear, or if not to have the GOP be made to look like fools. Latest example, fast and furious.

I could care less about the GOP anymore.


27 posted on 02/18/2012 12:49:36 AM PST by dsrtsage (One half of all people have below average In the US the number is 54%)
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To: neverdem
I have yet to be convinced the PROUD GOP Establishment considers the Obama administration a threat to this nation. The ‘TEA PARTY’ worked hard and returned the power of the House of Representative back. And the UNIVERSAL Obama care still got its funding. Now this nation is reduced to begging for permission to NOT be required to fund ‘birth control’ by some religious organizations.

I am not so sure any longer the PROUD GOP Establishment cares one whit if the middle class survives. Hey, PROUD-GOP, spending nearly 18 million dollars to lie and distort an opponents life and record is just too Obama like to get ignored. The liberals are going to clean your 1% clock.

28 posted on 02/18/2012 12:58:13 AM PST by Just mythoughts (Luke 17:32 Remember Lot's wife.)
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To: Lancey Howard

This isn’t the general election against the opposition, this is the Republican primary.

A campaigner cannot so ruin the others and himself in the primary that they are destructed in the eyes of the general public, and damaged beyond the ability to take on an unchallenged, unquestioned, unsoiled, Presidential incumbent, who is above it all and who enters the general election process, clean and pure as the snow.

Romney set out to permanently destroy Newt Gingrich, to salt the earth in case Newt does win the nomination, that is unacceptable.

Romney was so vile and filthy, that he may even have knocked himself out, and allowed Romney lite to perhaps slip through.


29 posted on 02/18/2012 1:09:52 AM PST by ansel12 (Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history.)
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To: neverdem

Just who the hell is Sean Trende?


30 posted on 02/18/2012 1:10:55 AM PST by antceecee (Bless us Father.. have mercy on us and protect us from evil.)
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To: dsrtsage

I agree completely. The GOP is dead to me. It’s time we treated them as enemies rather than as incompetent friends. After this ugly nomination process is over and we have Newt (hopefully), we should set to work taking out each and every RINO in the party.


31 posted on 02/18/2012 1:21:54 AM PST by Apollo5600
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To: no dems
Why do we NEVER see any Romney supporters on Free Republic?

Three reasons:

1.) Anyone supporting Romney is not a real conservative.

2.) The sons o' b*tches are not welcome here, per our esteemed Founder.

3.) The little maggots get zotted as soon as they're detected, and rightly so.
32 posted on 02/18/2012 1:26:03 AM PST by mkjessup (Let's do to Mitt what his Irish Setter did to him while tied to the roof rack of his station wagon!)
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To: ansel12

You make a good point, and I can’t disagree with you. Here in Pennsylvania, there haven’t been any TV ads yet and only a few benign radio ads, so I haven’t seen the TV ad warfare yet. I gather it is pretty brutal.

Romney = the GOP establishment elite. This isn’t just Romney “salting the earth” - - the scumbag establishment elite wants to send a message to real conservatives. The message is, “Shut up and take what you can get. Just don’t push it.”


33 posted on 02/18/2012 1:48:56 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: Lancey Howard

In Florida is where the real Romney came out, he and his super PAC spent about 15.4 million dollars attacking Gingrich, McCain spent about 12 million dollars on ads in the entire 2008 primary.


34 posted on 02/18/2012 2:12:38 AM PST by ansel12 (Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history.)
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To: neverdem
ROMNEY BASHING, BASHING OPPONENTS
35 posted on 02/18/2012 2:13:36 AM PST by FrankR (You are only enslaved to the extent of the entitlements you receive.)
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To: dsrtsage
I agree that the GOP destroyed itself, but I have another reason.

It was the constant parade of corrupt and sex crime allegations committed by the senators and congressmen.

I can remember one after another quitting because they had been caught doing something. Even my congressman Mark Souder was accused of some sort of a “young men” sex crime. And he quit only when caught.

The public just got tired of it and branded the GOP as a bunch of guys like that.

Plus...there is the 50% of the American public that is real stupid, you got that one.

BA

36 posted on 02/18/2012 3:05:16 AM PST by Battle Axe (Repent, for the coming of the Lord is nigh.)
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To: neverdem

.

37 posted on 02/18/2012 3:28:23 AM PST by Elle Bee
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To: Lancey Howard

I’ve been seeing at least one romney ad calling santorum a big spender, voted to raise spending 51 times, shows santorum huddling with hillary clinton, but if you look closely, you see that she was just thrown into the image as a visual prop. It runs about every hour all day long.


38 posted on 02/18/2012 4:02:25 AM PST by MestaMachine (obama kills)
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To: no dems

I have wondered the very same. Perhaps they are afraid.


39 posted on 02/18/2012 4:39:28 AM PST by HotKat (Politicians are like diapers; they need to be changed often and for the same reason. Mark Twain)
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To: neverdem

Simple solution: give the Tea Party what it wants and get out of the way.


40 posted on 02/18/2012 4:47:37 AM PST by Mechanicos (Why does the DOE have a SWAT Team?)
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