Cumulative natural gas production from 2010 through 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case is 7 percent higher than in AEO2011, even though the estimated natural gas resource base is lower. This primarily reflects increased shale gas production resulting from the application of recent technological advances, as well as continued drilling in shale plays with high concentrations of natural gas liquids and crude oil, which have a higher value in energy equivalent terms than dry natural gas. Production levels for tight gas and coalbed methane exceed those in the AEO2011 Reference case through 2035, making significant contributions to the overall increase in production. Offshore natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico fluctuates between 2.0 and 2.8 trillion cubic feet per year as new large projects directed toward liquids development are started over time.
In the AEO2012 Reference case, the estimated unproved technically recoverable resource (TRR) of shale gas for the United States is 482 trillion cubic feet, substantially below the estimate of 827 trillion cubic feet in AEO2011. The decline largely reflects a decrease in the estimate for the Marcellus shale, from 410 trillion cubic feet to 141 trillion cubic feet. Both EIA and USGS have recently made significant revisions to their TRR estimates for the Marcellus shale. Drilling in the Marcellus accelerated rapidly in 2010 and 2011, so that there is far more information available today than a year ago. Indeed, the daily rate of Marcellus production doubled during 2011 alone. Using data though 2010, USGS updated its TRR estimate for the Marcellus to 84 trillion cubic feet, with a 90-percent confidence range from 43 to 144 trillion cubic feet—a substantial increase over the previous USGS estimate of 2 trillion cubic feet dating from 2002. For AEO2012, EIA uses more recent drilling and production data available through 2011 and excludes production experience from the pre-shale era (before 2008). EIA’s TRR estimate for the entire Northeast also includes TRR of 16 trillion cubic feet for the Utica shale, which underlies the Marcellus and is still relatively little explored. The complete AEO2012 publication will include a more in-depth examination of the factors that affect resource estimates.
In the AEO2012 Reference case, the United States becomes a net exporter of LNG starting in 2016 and an overall net exporter of natural gas in 2021. U.S. LNG exports are assumed to start with a capacity of 1.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2016 and increase by an additional 1.1 billion cubic feet per day in 2019. Over the projection period, cumulative net pipeline imports of natural gas from Canada and Mexico in the AEO2012 Reference case are less than 50 percent of those projected in the AEO2011 Reference case, with the United States becoming a net pipeline exporter of natural gas in 2025. In the AEO2012 Reference case, net pipeline imports from Canada fall by 62 percent over the projection period, and net pipeline exports to Mexico grow by 440 percent. Cumulative U.S. LNG imports from 2011 through 2035 are down by 20 percent in AEO2012 compared with AEO2011, due in part to increased use of LNG in markets outside North America, strong domestic production, and relatively low U.S. natural gas prices in comparison with other global markets. As in the AEO2011 Reference case, the Alaska natural gas pipeline is not constructed in the AEO2012 Reference case, because assumed high capital costs and low natural gas wellhead prices make it uneconomical to proceed with the pipeline project over the projection period.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_production.cfm
“The Southern California Monterey/Santos play is the largest shale oil formation estimated to hold 15.4 billion barrels or 64 percent of the total shale oil resources followed by Bakken and Eagle Ford with approximately 3.6 billion barrels and 3.4 billion barrels of oil, respectively... “
Thackney,
Has CA production also gone up recently ? According to this article they have 4X the available shale oil as either ND and So TX. Obviously, these two have become boom areas. Is the Ca shale oil in areas controlled by the state or federal govt ? Has CA passed some type of fracking moritorium like NY ? Enlighten us ,please.