I can provide support to past and actually conditions. I can use my limited understanding to make some projections, but I try not to as there are far too many factors that effect the price of oil.
I won't begin to try and support the fantasies of the main stream media. The are selling headlines, not factual information.
It shows WTI going up maybe ten bucks.
I think you fall into the same trap. There are far too many factors that effect the price of oil. Try to look at historical data and use your information from ten years ago where the price would be a year later. Tell me how well that approach works as you go through each year approaching 2008.
Anyone predicting the price of oil, who has not consistently profited from past predictions, really doesn't know. They make guess, some based on pretty good reasons.
But in the past few years, we have seen drastic changes due to things like a financial bubble bursting that had next to nothing to do with oil. We see changes based upon political posturing, elections and weather.
When the story includes lots of "mights, could, possibly" you begin to understand how little can be accurately determined.
Look at the results of the people that do nothing else but these type predictions. Are the correct, year after year, even 50% of the time? Look at the uncertainty dependable sources show:
Our best bet is to pursue policies and regulations that help grow supply, that do not promote wasteful usuage without adding significant price impacts.
But we fool ourselves if we believe we can predict an insane ruler actions, like those of Imanutjob in Iran. Those will impact prices in the short run.