Why Is Gasoline Consumption Tanking?

Of Two Minds ^ | 2/10/2012 | Charles Hugh Smith

[VA Voter]

What other plausible explanation is there for the decline from 42.4 MGD in July 2011 to 30.9 MGD in November 2011 other than a dramatic decline in discretionary driving? That 27% drop in a few months in unprecedented, except in times of war or sharp economic contraction, i.e. recession.

If we stipulate that vehicles and fuel consumption are essential proxies for the U.S. economy, then we can expect a steep decline in economic activity to register in other metrics within the next few months.

Such a sharp drop would of course be "unexpected" given the positive employment data of the past few months. But as the data above shows, employment isn't tightly correlated to gasoline consumption: gasoline consumption reflects recession and growth.

In other words, look out below.

[nascarnation]

I’m not sure about the data source.
Shedlock is definitely not in the bag for Baraq, he’s a libertarian.

There’s a FReeper named “Thackney” who is an oil industry expert, maybe he’ll see this and chime in.

[Varsity Flight]

SUSTAINED......

Gasoline and the price of oil has been SUSTAINED at the 3.00-3.99/ 95-105 range.

The FLOOD of non-productive 15 trillion dollar paychecks and pensions, is keeping commodity prices high, and poisoning the false-stock market.

The productive are and WILL keep shutting down consumption of EVERYTHING, NOT JUST GASOLINE, until Arbeitsziehungslager-Theft cessation.

[9422WMR]

$3.35 2/09/2012 South FW @ 7:00am
$3.49 2/10/2012 same location @ 11:00 am
What a bunch of crap.......

[Buckeye McFrog]

Runaway sales of the Chevy Volt /sarc

[Revel]

And then ask why the price is going up when it should be going down. Answer: Wallstreet.

[cynwoody]

Here are the numbers (from the EIA):

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
1983	46,218.3	48,906.1	54,111.7	49,093.7	52,021.3	52,517.2	51,898.0	51,905.6	52,676.3	50,724.3	51,150.8	51,879.1
1984	54,148.6	55,651.7	57,636.0	56,937.0	58,755.9	60,075.0	59,055.7	59,378.3	56,947.3	57,386.5	58,075.3	56,765.8
1985	54,584.3	53,829.7	57,297.6	59,075.2	57,563.7	58,832.1	58,563.3	58,096.1	56,979.0	56,949.0	58,100.7	60,295.9
1986	55,283.0	58,546.4	61,250.4	62,628.9	65,578.7	63,294.1	62,861.8	61,342.4	60,341.9	60,946.1	61,880.4	62,290.2
1987	56,488.6	60,641.1	61,627.2	61,733.5	61,750.0	64,315.2	62,404.8	62,643.9	59,339.3	60,707.9	58,877.0	61,720.2
1988	57,041.0	59,900.3	61,577.5	61,584.1	60,701.3	62,884.1	61,873.2	62,450.0	61,036.1	60,385.3	59,783.1	63,099.8
1989	55,556.8	58,492.6	60,500.1	60,242.0	62,088.7	63,521.0	62,335.0	63,362.0	61,922.8	61,973.6	61,339.0	63,182.4
1990	58,138.0	57,909.4	59,847.0	59,600.5	60,572.2	63,108.6	61,531.0	63,182.0	60,912.1	60,295.1	60,550.6	58,382.1
1991	56,924.5	59,384.5	61,553.8	61,982.0	62,244.9	63,319.4	62,600.6	62,534.0	60,346.2	61,181.3	60,442.9	61,521.7
1992	56,410.9	58,308.6	59,639.5	59,980.2	59,615.2	60,353.3	60,400.3	59,083.7	58,579.1	59,011.8	56,877.6	59,287.9
1993	53,826.6	57,305.3	57,624.8	58,138.7	57,465.8	60,391.1	58,807.7	58,453.0	57,462.3	55,432.4	55,743.5	56,074.7
1994	51,533.7	54,270.1	55,363.8	54,962.1	55,523.0	57,165.3	55,834.5	56,393.4	54,992.9	54,240.5	54,480.4	55,612.3
1995	51,200.2	54,138.2	55,592.4	55,456.8	56,242.2	58,547.4	56,944.0	58,296.8	56,580.9	55,610.5	55,907.4	56,471.5
1996	53,039.9	54,566.8	56,388.2	57,183.4	57,796.4	59,170.9	58,909.8	59,651.5	57,845.3	58,456.2	58,101.4	59,200.7
1997	54,440.6	57,313.3	58,443.8	58,854.0	57,840.1	59,820.3	65,294.2	64,803.7	63,680.2	64,355.2	62,252.8	66,017.1
1998	59,905.7	62,399.8	64,533.5	59,012.3	59,509.7	60,837.0	67,183.3	66,831.0	65,146.9	65,121.8	63,846.8	65,401.5
1999	60,254.0	62,779.7	63,320.2	63,722.4	63,464.7	64,458.4	62,669.7	61,363.0	59,265.4	60,415.4	59,078.1	62,719.0
2000	54,421.0	59,107.2	60,573.0	57,911.6	60,300.4	63,275.5	62,278.2	63,621.8	63,098.0	61,954.7	62,184.7	62,014.2
2001	58,139.5	61,731.0	62,859.5	62,301.3	62,878.9	65,417.0	62,534.2	64,390.5	62,214.2	60,864.4	60,024.8	60,793.5
2002	60,211.7	63,942.2	62,828.5	63,953.3	64,537.0	64,874.0	64,594.2	66,683.5	62,352.4	63,344.8	63,255.8	63,109.4
2003	60,247.9	60,803.4	60,815.8	61,728.4	66,315.5	66,426.5	66,803.1	66,812.7	63,949.0	64,615.5	63,778.4	63,394.5
2004	57,143.8	58,381.7	59,186.2	59,352.6	58,565.7	58,992.8	59,012.0	59,664.1	57,327.4	57,977.1	57,017.9	58,013.6
2005	54,938.7	58,368.8	58,330.0	59,093.3	59,474.5	61,731.9	61,109.4	61,220.9	57,866.5	57,075.2	59,094.7	59,426.1
2006	56,531.8	59,960.4	59,859.7	61,020.8	60,234.0	61,980.4	61,445.8	62,015.9	59,783.4	60,233.2	58,860.2	57,862.5
2007	54,698.1	56,954.9	57,278.7	57,354.7	58,719.6	60,865.7	58,806.7	60,178.5	57,912.9	57,843.2	56,579.0	54,650.0
2008	53,994.1	56,157.4	55,494.8	56,307.4	56,390.6	55,938.5	54,802.5	55,628.2	53,405.9	55,210.7	54,080.6	53,931.5
2009	51,108.7	50,968.4	51,298.4	51,215.6	50,957.0	50,419.6	49,677.9	49,966.5	48,669.6	48,461.0	47,454.3	47,441.4
2010	44,012.3	44,227.1	45,482.4	46,234.2	46,016.2	46,765.3	45,755.3	45,082.6	43,876.0	43,624.1	42,857.0	42,417.1
2011	40,331.0	40,924.9	41,608.1	41,555.0	41,172.9	42,477.2	42,448.3	42,351.8	41,972.6	32,015.0	30,934.0

It's clear demand has been dropping off since the middle of 2009. But I wonder if the sharp drop in October and November is not simply a data problem — reports not all in — that isn't real and will get revised upward.

[pepperdog]

It’s not just gasoline. I just returned from the grocery store and it looks like almost everything has jumped by 5% to 10% in the last month or two. It is frightening to think what it will be by this time next year.

[VA Voter]

You left out properly inflated tires.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Nevertheless, it works for Obama.

Consumption drops dramatically, but the price keeps rising.

The great unwashed conclude that the Law of Supply and Demand must be a bunch of hooey. It’s all a big scam. And if a basic tenet of Capitalism is nothing but a scam, Capitalism itself must be one also.

[TheOldLady]

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[cynwoody]

The past few months have been even more grim than usual for the immediate pre- and post-Christmas period for some contractors of my acquaintance. Roofers are still getting work, but calls for discretionary projects like new flooring and interior painting are way down.

I wonder if Lakshman Achuthan knows something mainstream economists don't. Here he is last December reiterating a recession call he made at the end of September:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pKcEYCuvHr0

[relictele]

It isn’t just the prices. It’s the dwindling quantities as well.

The UK papers, with their typical cutting humor, call it the ‘supermarket shrink ray.’

Products are being reduced in weight/volume - almost imperceptibly - while the price remains the same or increases.

Boxed items are the most frequent culprits as the box can be made thinner, wider and taller (e.g. breakfast cereal) while the bag inside is made smaller. Our minds fool us into thinking the box is the same size and when we pick it up it still feels ‘full’ but we are paying dearly for a lot of air.

One of the few drawbacks to our market-driven economy is the lack of any watchdogs beyond the leftist-dominated Consumer Reports. Local and national media are, of course, hopelessly dependent on advertising by both producers and retailers and will avoid the issue whenever possible.

[Disambiguator]

Half gallons of ice cream suddenly became 1.75 quarts, now 1.5 quarts. Pretty soon a half-gallon of ice cream will be one quart.

[Lorianne]

Bingo.
A big part of this is the Galt effect

[longtermmemmory]

(s) people have 10,000 friends and they all live in their computer. Who needs to drive?(/s)

[Publius6961]

Everyone has discounted and moving to their expectations of a lousy presidency.

And what progressives generally, and democrats specifically are unequiped to grasp, is that the (now justified) stampede for the financial exits began in 2007, before "the great uniter" was elected.

For them, it was "Bush's fault."

[Publius6961]

And then ask why the price is going up when it should be going down. Answer: Wallstreet.

NO.

During the Carter administration, well connected socialist "government advisors" recommended $5 a gallon gasoline as a means of "controlling consumption."

During the Reagan administration, well connected socialist "government advisors" recommended $5 a gallon gasoline as a means of "controlling consumption."

During the Bush (1&2) administration, well connected socialist "government advisors" recommended $5 a gallon gasoline as a means of "controlling consumption."

During the Clinton administration, well connected socialist "government advisors" recommended $5 a gallon gasoline as a means of "controlling consumption."

During the Obama administration, well connected socialist "government advisors" recommended $5 a gallon gasoline as a means of "controlling consumption."

Today, well connected socialist "government advisors" continue to recommend $5 a gallon gasoline as a means of "controlling consumption."

It works and is good for Europe; it must also be good for us and works great.

We don't need no stinking domestic oil production and development of additional proven alternative energy sources.

[Publius6961]

It’s not just gasoline. I just returned from the grocery store and it looks like almost everything has jumped by 5% to 10% in the last month or two. It is frightening to think what it will be by this time next year.

This is just another way of saying everything is affected by transportation energy prices.

When "the great uniter" told us that as a result of HIS energy policy the price of energy would skyrocket, I immediately thought...

Agriculture and food!

Didn't you?

[Ramius]

That’s an amazingly steep drop... -Half- of what it was in the same month only a few years ago? I can understand it declining... the economy... jobs... shipping... even unusually severe winter... but in half? Something must be missing.

[hinckley buzzard]

Look at the figures year over year, November to November.

The idea that people curtail discretionary driving as an austerity measure should not be surprising. The media has sold Americans on the belief that we have a "love affair with the auto," implying that demand is inelastic. Obviously, except for adolescent nuts, that is bullshit. As people mature, driving becomes less an adventure, or leisure time activity, and more a time-consuming necessity.

I have been cutting down for years on driving so I can have more time(and money) to do other, more interesting things. I suspect I'm not alone.