Thanks for the update Jeff.
On Tuesday, March 13, 2012, four Primaries and Caucuses were held for the GOP Presidential Primary, Alabama (50), Mississippi (40), Hawaii (20), and American Samoa (9) for a total of 119 delegates. This marked the big test of Newt Gingrich's "Southern Strategy" wherein he hoped to begin winning the majority of the southern states in order to place himself back in contention. For Romney it offered the opportunity for a potential "knock out punch" if he could win both Southern states by showing he could win in the very conservative south. For Santorum it offered the opportunity to solidify himself as the clear conservative alternative to the leader, Mitt Romney.
Santorum won both Alabama and Mississippi, but by small marins, 2-5%. Romney, though hoping for perhaps at least one victory, did not win either...but still did relatively well staying very competitive to the other two and getting close to a third of the delegates. In fact, all three men basically spit the votes and the delegates into thirds, with Santorum winning a few percentage points (and delegates) more than that.
It was heralded as a big victory for Santorum, and it was, because he can and will bring much more pressure to bear on Gingrich to unite with him and throw his weight and campaign behind Santorum's. To date Gingrich indicates he will not do that. In the two southern states Santorum took 31 delegates, Gingrich took 24 and Romney got 23.
But later in the night (actually the early morning) the results from Hawaii and American Samoa came in. They completely blunted Santorum's delegate win. Romney won Samoa taking all 9 delegates, and he handliy won Hawaii by over 20 points and took 15 of the 20 delegates there. This means that for the night, ROmney picked up 47 delegates, Santorum got 32, and Gingrich got 25, and Pual got 4. Romney increased his delegate lead count significantly, even though Santorum won Alabama and Mississippi. This shows that Romney's bull dog tactics, taking advantage of Gingrich and Santorum splitting the more conservative vote are working, further increasing his lead in delegate counts, which he is focused on like a laser, with each set of contests.
In the overall race to date, Romney now leads in popular vote with over 3.5 million votes with 38.50%. Santorum is second with 2.4 million votes or 26.35% , Gingrich is third with 2.1 million votes or 23% and Ron Paul is fourth with 974 thousand votes or 10.7%. But, although he has only won 38.5% of the popular vote, this has translated to date into 520 delgates or 52% of the total delegates awarded to date. Santorum follows with 249 delegates or 21%, Gingrich with 148 or 15% and Paul with 83 delegates or 11%. At this rate, Romney has a clear chance of clinching the nomination before the convention.
In my opinion, this tough primary season, despite pundents prognostications, continues to strengthen the candidates, keeping the GOP message at the top of the news cycle, and preparing the nominee to fight Obama. Any of the four would be orders of magnitude better than Barack Obama and his dismal failures. Here's the GOPTracking results as of Sunday, March 11, 2012:
| 2012 GOP Primaries | Date | Mitt Romney | Newt Gingrich | Rick Santorum | Ron Paul | Ron Huntsman | Rick Perry | Michele Bachman | Herman Cain | Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||
| Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Win | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | % | Del's | Votes | Del's | ||
| Iowa | 1/3/2012 | 29,805 | 24.58% | 7 | - | 16,163 | 13.33% | 2 | - | 29,839 | 24.61% | 7 | 1 | 26,036 | 21.47% | 7 | - | 739 | 0.61% | 0 | 12,557 | 10.36% | 0 | 6,046 | 4.99% | 0 | 58 | 0.05% | 0 | 121,243 | 23 |
| New Hamp | 1/10/2012 | 97,601 | 39.81% | 7 | 1 | 23,291 | 9.50% | 0 | - | 23,362 | 9.53% | 0 | - | 56,872 | 23.20% | 3 | - | 41,783 | 17.04% | 2 | 1,764 | 0.72% | 0 | 350 | 0.14% | 0 | 160 | 0.07% | 0 | 245,183 | 12 |
| South Caro | 1/21/2012 | 168,152 | 27.86% | 2 | - | 244,133 | 40.44% | 23 | 1 | 102,492 | 16.98% | 0 | - | 78,362 | 12.98% | 0 | - | 1,173 | 0.19% | 0 | 2,534 | 0.42% | 0 | 491 | 0.08% | 0 | 6,326 | 1.05% | 0 | 603,663 | 25 |
| Florida | 1/31/2012 | 776,059 | 46.44% | 50 | 2 | 534,040 | 31.96% | 0 | - | 223,208 | 13.36% | 0 | - | 117,410 | 7.03% | 0 | - | 6,199 | 0.37% | 0 | 6,773 | 0.41% | 0 | 3,967 | 0.24% | 0 | 3,492 | 0.21% | 0 | 1,671,148 | 50 |
| Nevada | 2/4/2012 | 16,486 | 50.12% | 14 | 3 | 6,956 | 21.15% | 6 | - | 3,277 | 9.96% | 3 | - | 6,175 | 18.77% | 5 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 32,894 | 28 |
| Main | 2,190 | 39.65% | 9 | 4 | 349 | 6.32% | 0 | - | 989 | 17.90% | 3 | - | 1,996 | 36.13% | 7 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 5,524 | 19 | |
| Colorado | 2/7/2012 | 22,875 | 35.00% | 13 | - | 8,394 | 12.84% | 1 | - | 26,372 | 40.35% | 17 | 2 | 7,713 | 11.80% | 1 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 65,354 | 32 |
| Minnesota | 8,096 | 16.97% | 2 | - | 5,134 | 10.76% | 1 | - | 21,436 | 44.94% | 25 | 3 | 13,030 | 27.32% | 9 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 47,696 | 14 | |
| Missouri | 63,826 | 26.24% | 0 | - | 9,859 | 4.05% | 0 | - | 138,957 | 57.12% | 0 | 4 | 30,641 | 12.59% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 243,283 | 0 | |
| Arizona | 2/28/2012 | 216,805 | 47.99% | 29 | 5 | 74,110 | 16.40% | 0 | - | 122,088 | 27.03% | 0 | - | 38,753 | 8.58% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 451,756 | 29 |
| Michigan | 409,899 | 42.34% | 16 | 6 | 65,016 | 6.72% | 0 | - | 377,521 | 38.99% | 14 | - | 115,712 | 11.95% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 968,148 | 30 | |
| Washington | 3/3/2012 | 19,111 | 37.65% | 30 | 7 | 5,221 | 10.28% | 0 | - | 12,089 | 23.81% | 5 | - | 12,594 | 24.81% | 5 | - | 924 | 1.82% | 0 | 437 | 0.86% | 0 | 198 | 0.39% | 0 | 190 | 0.37% | 0 | 50,764 | 40 |
| Wyoming | 822 | 38.99% | 10 | 8 | 165 | 7.83% | 1 | - | 673 | 31.93% | 9 | - | 439 | 20.83% | 6 | - | 3 | 0.14% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2 | 0.09% | 0 | 2,108 | 26 | |
| Alaska | 3/6/2012 | 4,285 | 32.52% | 8 | 9 | 1,856 | 14.09% | 3 | - | 3,860 | 29.30% | 7 | - | 3,175 | 24.10% | 6 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 13,176 | 24 |
| Georgia | S | 225,926 | 25.18% | 15 | - | 417,364 | 47.81% | 47 | 2 | 172,473 | 19.76% | 10 | - | 57,125 | 6.54% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 872,888 | 76 |
| Idaho | u | 27,514 | 61.61% | 32 | 10 | 940 | 2.11% | 0 | - | 8,115 | 18.17% | 0 | - | 8,086 | 18.11% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 44,655 | 32 |
| Massachusetts | p | 260,509 | 73.29% | 41 | 11 | 16,756 | 4.71% | 0 | - | 43,6114 | 12.27% | 0 | - | 34,575 | 9.735 | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 355,455 | 41 |
| N. Dakota | e | 2,691 | 23.71% | 7 | - | 961 | 8.48% | 2 | - | 4,510 | 39.74% | 11 | 5 | 3,186 | 28.07% | 8 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 11,349 | 28 |
| Ohio | r | 453,927 | 38.93% | 32 | 12 | 174,606 | 14.78% | 10 | - | 441,908 | 37.42% | 20 | - | 110,633 | 9.37% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 1,181,074 | 66 |
| Oklahoma | 80,291 | 28.34% | 13 | - | 78,686 | 27.77% | 13 | - | 96,759 | 34.15% | 14 | 6 | 27,572 | 9.73% | 13 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 283,208 | 43 | |
| Tennessee | T | 153,889 | 28.46% | 18 | - | 132,142 | 24.43% | 12 | - | 204,978 | 37.90% | 26 | 7 | 49,782 | 9.21% | 2 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 540,791 | 58 |
| Vermont | u | 22,533 | 41.01% | 9 | 13 | 4,606 | 8.39% | 0 | - | 13,401 | 24.39% | 4 | - | 14,407 | 26.22% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 54,949 | 17 |
| Virginia | e | 158,050 | 59.52% | 44 | 14 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 107,470 | 40.48% | 5 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 265,520 | 49 |
| Guam | 3/10/2012 | 215 | 100% | 9 | 15 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 215 | 9 |
| Marianna Is | 738 | 87.03% | 9 | 16 | 29 | 3.42% | 0 | - | 27 | 3.18% | 0 | - | 54 | 6.37% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 848 | 9 | |
| Virgin Is | 132 | 46.32% | 7 | 17 | 18 | 6.32% | 0 | - | 23 | 8.07% | 0 | - | 112 | 39.30% | 1 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 848 | 8 | |
| Kansas | 6,250 | 21.11% | 7 | - | 4,298 | 14.52% | 0 | - | 15,290 | 51.65% | 33 | 8 | 3,767 | 12.72% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 29,605 | 40 | |
| Alabama | 3/13/2012 | 178,601 | 29.70% | 11 | - | 179,919 | 29.92% | 12 | - | 212,343 | 35,31% | 18 | 9 | 30,494 | 5.07% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 601,357 | 50 |
| Mississippi | 85,922 | 30.66% | 12 | - | 88,676 | 31.64% | 12 | - | 93,182 | 33.25% | 13 | 10 | 12,498 | 4.46% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 40- | |
| Am Samoa | 70 | 100% | 9 | 17 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Hawaii | 4,250 | 45.38% | 15 | 18 | 1,034 | 11.04% | 0 | - | 2,369 | 25.30% | 1 | - | 1,712 | 18.28% | 4 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 40 | |
| Missouri | 3/17/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 52 |
| Puerto Rico | 3/18/2024 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 23 |
| Illinois | 3/20/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 69 |
| Louisiana | 3/24/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 46 |
| DC | 4/3/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 19 |
| Maryland | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 37 | |
| Wisconsin | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 42 | |
| Conn | 4/24/2012 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| Deleware | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 17 | |
| New York | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 95 | |
| Pennsylvania | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 72 | |
| Rhode Il | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | - | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0 | 28 | |
| At large Del's | 30 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 36 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| TOTALS | 3,513,072 | 38.50% | 520 | 19 | 2,103,711 | 23.05% | 148 | 2 | 2,404,803 | 26.35% | 249 | 10 | 974,095 | 10.68% | 83 | 0 | 64,481 | 0.71% | 2 | 38,011 | 0.42% | 0 | 16,529 | 0.18% | 0 | 10,228 | 0.11% | 0 | 9,125,930 | 1002 | |
| To Date % of | Delegates | Romney | 52% | Gingrich | 15% | Santorum | 21% | Paul | 9.7% | Huntsman | 0.30% | Perry | 0% | Bachman | 0% | Cain | 0% | ||||||||||||||
Again, it is even more clear after these primaries, that only by uniting, can Santorum and Gingrich prevent Romney from having the chance of winning the nomination outright. It would not have helped in Hawaii or American Samoa, but it would have given a much larger delegate count to the single more conservative candidate in Alabama and Mississippi. If they do not do this soon, mathematically, Romney will ultimately eak out a win and reach the golden number of delegates before the convention, sometime probably in late May or early June. It still seems, for whatever reason, that Gingrich is unwilling to do this.
With Gingrich's "southern strategy" now in a shambles (He has won two (Georigia and South Carolina), Romney has won two (Florida and Virginia) and Santorum has won three (Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama)), the pressure on Gingrich to unite behind Santorum is going to grow in both strength and urgency. Seven southern states votes and Santorum i ss leading the pack with three and Romney and Gingrich with two each in the south.