>> ROMNEY 1,182,886
>> GINGRICH 838,102
>> SANTORUM 568,723
>> PAUL 335,951
Interesting way to look at things. Thanks!
And I love to play with numbers, so let’s take a look at some alternatives —
Scenario Number One: If Newt drops out, most of his voters (let’s say 80%) would probably go to Santo, a few to Romney (say, 10%) and a few to Ronny P (say, another 10%), leaving us with —
Romno = 1266696 = 43.2%
Santo = 1239205 = 42.6%
Paulo = 419761 = 14.3%
Therefore, under these assumptions, there’s a statistical tie between Santo and Romno, probably leading to a brokered convention — maybe with Paulo becoming a king-maker. Final outcome is anybody’s guess.
Scenario Number Two: There was at least one survey a couple of weeks ago showing that if Santo dropped out, half his support would go to Newt and another half (presumably the “strict morality” folks) to Mitt. So if this outcome should eventuate, here’s roughly what we’d have —
Mitt = 1467248 = 50.2%
Newt = 1122464 = 38.4%
Paul = 335951 = 11.0%
Bottom line for the second set of assumptions:
Mitt squeaks by, barely winning the nomination, but ultimately loses to Zerobama — due to (a) bitter wounds that are still festering within the GOP and (b) alienation of independents who are turned off by Romney’s recent negative campaign.
Both of the above outcomes are depressing. But if I gotta choose between the lesser of the evils, I’d wanna go with the first scenario, i.e., a brokered convention, which JUST MAYBE would let us nominate a Paul Ryan or a Mitch Daniels or a David Petraeus.
You really are “playing” with numbers. You miss one big...no, one HUGE HUGE factor. Turn out and intensity.
The only state where turn out was up (by any appreciable degree) was SC. That was the only excited electorate. Newt won that huge.
Santorum has snuck in four times with extremely low turn outs over earth scorched by Mitt at Newt’s expense. Santorum has shown no ability to turn out numbers, which is why he has awful raw vote figures even after his best night ever.