I don’t quite know either how there could be such a shift from Newt to Rick in so short a time. I think that what this proves is that Newt and Rick are appealing largely to the exact same audience. When one goes up, the other must come down. They never finish 1st and 2nd in line, but 1st/3rd or 1st/4th.
Why did Rick surge? Newt seems to have run into huge money troubles after blowing his wad in Florida. He didn’t seem to put in the campaign effort here and he had no debates to benefit from for free coverage. Rick seemed to put in a real effort campaigning in these states.
Although it’s been a while since the last debates, Newt arguably had his worst two debates in Florida, while Santorum landed at least a couple strong punches on both Newt and Mitt. Those performances may have been sinking into people’s minds.
Santorum did get some recent endorsements since Florida...Michelle Malkin, Sharon Angle, and I think there was another decent one.
Maybe the story of him going to be with his sick daughter humanized him in a way that hadn’t happened to any of the candidates so far.
And certainly the news cycle of the economy improving but with the huge controversy over Obamacare and the church taking center stage...well, you couldn’t find a better issue for Santorum to run on, combining both Obamacare which he hammered in the last debate with a social issue that would motivate his base of religious conservatives to get out and vote.
Good points, especially the church issues.
JediJones wrote:
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I don’t quite know either how there could be such a shift from Newt to Rick in so short a time. I think that what this proves is that Newt and Rick are appealing largely to the exact same audience. When one goes up, the other must come down. They never finish 1st and 2nd in line, but 1st/3rd or 1st/4th.
Why did Rick surge? Newt seems to have run into huge money troubles after blowing his wad in Florida. He didn’t seem to put in the campaign effort here and he had no debates to benefit from for free coverage. Rick seemed to put in a real effort campaigning in these states.
Although it’s been a while since the last debates, Newt arguably had his worst two debates in Florida, while Santorum landed at least a couple strong punches on both Newt and Mitt. Those performances may have been sinking into people’s minds.
Santorum did get some recent endorsements since Florida...Michelle Malkin, Sharon Angle, and I think there was another decent one.
Maybe the story of him going to be with his sick daughter humanized him in a way that hadn’t happened to any of the candidates so far.
And certainly the news cycle of the economy improving but with the huge controversy over Obamacare and the church taking center stage...well, you couldn’t find a better issue for Santorum to run on, combining both Obamacare which he hammered in the last debate with a social issue that would motivate his base of religious conservatives to get out and vote.
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An excellent and well-thought out post. I might also add that perhaps voters have become tired and burned out with the nasty and visceral Romney/Gingrich war and have decided to take another look at Santorum who appears to carry far less baggage by comparison.