Could this be Santorum’s big day?

Hotair ^ | 02/07/2012 | Ed Morrissey

[SeekAndFind]

Today, for the first time this cycle, multiple states hold their Republican presidential nomination contests on one day, two caucuses (Colorado and Minnesota) and one primary (Missouri). They all have two things in common. First, none of them are binding, so no delegates will be formally assigned from the vote. Second, they all represent Rick Santorum’s best shot at changing the trajectory of this race and positioning himself as the conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. One final series of snap polls from PPP shows Santorum with a double-digit lead in Missouri, and nearly as much of a lead in Minnesota:

Rick Santorum could be headed for a big day in today’s contests in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Missouri looks like a probable win for Santorum. He’s at 45% there to 32% for Mitt Romney and 19% for Paul. Minnesota provides an opportunity for a win as well. Currently he has a small advantage with 33% to 24% for Romney, 22% for Newt Gingrich, and 20% for Ron Paul. And Santorum should get a second place finish in Colorado, where Romney appears to be the likely winner. The standings there are Romney at 37%, Santorum at 27%, Gingrich at 21%, and Paul at 13%.

Missouri is the big test. Gingrich chose not to make the ballot in Missouri (a more deliberate choice than the failure of Gingrich and Santorum in Virginia), so this is the dry run of Santorum vs Romney and Paul. If he does win big in the Show Me State, it gives Santorum an argument for his strength as a conservative candidate more likely to beat Romney in future contests than Gingrich. A win in Minnesota, where Romney won in 2008, would bolster that argument even more, but a low turnout is expected in Minnesota. That makes predictions through polling difficult, although a nine-point lead in a widely-split field is better than no lead at all.

For Gingrich, the key is to beat Santorum in the two states in which he’s competing. The results in Missouri are not terribly relevant to Gingrich, and expect his campaign to spin a Santorum win as an indictment of Romney rather than a boost for Santorum, and they wouldn’t be entirely wrong, either. Falling to third in either would raise questions about his momentum; falling out of second place in both would be a huge problem for perception of the Gingrich campaign. In Minnesota, Gingrich is in a virtual tie for second place with Romney and Ron Paul, with just four points separating the three candidates. In Colorado, Gingrich is six points back of Santorum for second place in the PPP poll, but leads slightly as the second-place choice over Santorum, 25/23.

Gingrich could score a big PR coup by pushing Romney into third place in Minnesota, or he could end up in third or even fourth place himself. He’s also tied for second in the second-place choice question with Romney at 20% in Minnesota, with Santorum leading with 25% and Paul far behind at 10%. Based on those numbers, it looks like Santorum has a chance to win it, and Romney and Gingrich will be fighting it out for second place. In that case, look for the better organization to carry the day, and that won’t be good news for Gingrich. In Colorado, there is no chance of pushing Romney into third place, but Gingrich could beat Santorum for second. He has a slight edge in electability over Santorum in both states (+7 in CO, +6 in MN), and in Colorado that might be enough to get last-minute deciders to break his way and push him into second.

On the other hand, last-minute deciders might base their decision on instinct rather than stats, and that would not be good news for Gingrich. In both states, Gingrich is barely above water on favorability (+8 in CO, +7 in MN), though, while Santorum leads the field substantially (+52 in CO, +57 in MN), with Romney in second (+28 in CO, +7 in MN, tied with Gingrich). That combined with the other disadvantages of the Gingrich campaign, plus the interesting strategic decision over the last two days to focus on Santorum, may have undercut Gingrich’s stature enough to send him into an across-the-board retreat. If so, Gingrich had either hope for a miracle in the February 22nd debate. If Santorum comes in third in both Minnesota and Colorado while winning Missouri, it won’t be as dire, but he would lose the argument over his ability to outperform Gingrich in the center of the country, and the Not-Romney stalemate would continue. And you know who that helps ….

[Prokopton]

He’s a damned liar, just like Romeny.

Not of course like Gingrich...Oh wait, wasn't Gingrich the only Speaker of the House censured by his fellow representatives after he admitted to the House Ethics committee that he was not honest with them, paying $300,000.00 as part of the sanction? Publicly disgraced for lack of honesty, what a feather in his cap.

[SatinDoll]

You are spreading disinformation and a liar yourself!

Newt was exonerated of all ethics charges. The “public disgrace” is in your eyes only.

[douginthearmy]

Newt Gingrich - Victory or Death
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xi9Kkpk-1So

I challenge any Santorum supporter to point to any single thing Santorum has ever said or done that compares on any level to this speech.

[Norseman]

It comes down to this: Gingrich is hated by too many conservative women to either get the nomination or beat Obama. He might (might) be the better Conservative, though I have my doubts.

Romney’s main weakness, in both the primaries, and particularly in the general election, is his refusal to disavow Romneycare. In the general election, no one will believe him when he will no doubt claim that he will sign a repeal of Obamacare. And Obama will hammer him with his support for Romneycare. Republicans will be dispirited, and Obama gets four more years.

This is reflected in the lousy turnout in any race so far that Romney has been projected to walk away the winner. If he’s up by double digits, his supporters show up, and the rest stay home. If it’s close, or he’s down in the race, conservatives vote in droves, like in SC.

Santorum has had the sense to make BOTH Romneycare and Obamacare the issues, claiming, rightly, that Romney will not be able to take it to Obama on that issue, as he’s already ceded it completely with his support of Romneycare.

Gingrich can’t get elected, and Romney will leave the most liberty-robbing law of all time on the books. This is sinking in, and Santorum will benefit as it does.

[Prokopton]

Newt was exonerated of all ethics charges.

Nope.

Here's what the ethics Committee said:

“The subcommittee decided that regardless of the resolution of the … tax question, Mr. Gingrich’s conduct in this regard was improper, did not reflect creditably on the House, and was deserving of sanction.”

Here's what Gingrich said:

On Dec. 21, 1996, Gingrich admitted that he violated the House ethics rules and he apologized. “With deep sadness, I agree. I did not seek legal counsel when I should have in order to ensure clear compliance with all applicable laws, and that was wrong,” Gingrich said. “Because I did not, I brought down on the people’s house a controversy which could weaken the faith people have in their government."

Sanctions against Gingrich were overwhelmingly approved by the House, Democrats and Republicans alike, including censure and payment to the Committee of $300,000.00.

Doesn't look like "exoneration" to me.

[Eva]

...and who would that Nun be? Obama’s Nun?

[Eva]

Look, I grew up in Pennsylvania, so I’ve followed Rick Santorum for years. This issue about the school is a bunch of hooey.

It had something to do with the Santorums and their residency, or something like that. It was all drummed up to get him out of office. It was a non-story then, and it’s still a non-story. Frankly, I didn’t pay enough attention to remember the details because it was so silly.

[Eva]

I have to ask you, do you have something against Italian Catholics?

[SatinDoll]

No. I’m not only part Italian, but am Roman Catholic.

None of which has anything to do with my research into all the Republican candidates, none of whom are perfect. But I believe it is important to get information out in front of voters.

Hopefully we won’t make a repeat mistake voting in someone like James Earl Carter, who was such a nice guy and a good Christian. Yech! If we’d known more about the man during the election campaign, maybe he wouldn’t have ended up as President.

I did the same research in 2008 concerning Obama and posted information about him on Free Republic, which was ignored and often scorned by fellow Freepers. This election year I’m more hopeful.

What I definitely do not like is people who self-identify as a conservative politician, yet who’s voting and performance record in office does not to back up that claim.

After examining Romney’s and Santorum’s claims of conservatism and comparing that claim to their performance in office, the gap between claim and actual records in office is huge. The only one that isn’t happens to be Newt Gingrich.

[SatinDoll]

All ethics charges against Newt Gingrich were dropped save one. The IRS investigated that particular charge and found it baseless. Dragging this out in an attempt to divert attention away from the semi-conservative Santorum is truly pathetic.

Your lies have been repeatedly proven false over and over again at this site. Spreading disinformation is sternly punished on Free Republic.

Just don’t support Romney - you’ll be zotted. And next time stick with the whole truth; anything halfway is an outright falsification.

[SatinDoll]

Yeah, I know Pennsylvanians from his district who had supported him and then voted him out because he lied.

So what?

[Prokopton]

All ethics charges against Newt Gingrich were dropped save one. The IRS investigated that particular charge and found it baseless.

My post is accurate and you know it, your posts are hysterical spin. Gingrich admitted his dishonesty and apologized. It has nothing to do with the IRS and my last post reflects that. Your posts are beginning to sound truly psychotic. And I am not the least concerned with your silly threats.

[JediJones]

Here are the facts quoted from “What really happened in the Gingrich ethics case?” by Byron York in the Washington Examiner: Stunned by their loss of control of the House — a loss engineered by Gingrich — House Democrats began pushing a variety of ethics complaints against the new Speaker...It ended with a special counsel hired by the House Ethics Committee holding Gingrich to an astonishingly strict standard of behavior, after which Gingrich in essence pled guilty to two minor offenses. Afterwards, the case was referred to the Internal Revenue Service, which conducted an exhaustive investigation into the matter....the IRS concluded that Gingrich did nothing wrong. Gingrich was exonerated. The bottom line: Gingrich acted properly and violated no laws. But if Gingrich is to have any hope of climbing out from under the allegations, he’ll have to find some way of letting people know what really happened.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2837453/posts

[SatinDoll]

You and Santorum - liars together.

[AmericanInTokyo]

I support this man--with the least amount of closet skeletons as far as I can discern, as our best Conservative Republican chance to take out Emperor Patrice Lumumba Obama with the trash come November. "I am AmericanInTokyo (12 years on Free Republic) and I paid for this ad" (well, I contribute to FR from time to time is what I mean, you should too.)

And if anyone some how thinks I am a "liberal troll" (sic) because of my support of the Senator to head off the other three at the pass and then have a good go at Obama in the General, well then, they can take a 50 yard dash off a 40 yard long pier.

We shall see how well Rick Santorum does today in the various states. This California pro-Gay Marriage/anti-popular plebiscite ruling today by the out of control judiciary, as well as Obama's Open War on the Catholic Church, should make for some great market pull today in these various states. Social issues are right up there with fiscal issues, believe me. This country is fully on the way to internal cultural rot, which can destroy in every much way as possible as fiscal quagmire or foreign invasion. History is replete with many examples of great societies descending into the abyss this way; when they lost their heart and soul.

[Abby4116]

What common good is this left wing nun talking about? I sent my kids to private schools to escape the pathetic curriculum and poor teachers who infest the public school systems. Had I been smart enough to have found a loop hole to not have paid taxes for these cesspools we call public education I would used it too.

The kids were NOT residents of the school district which paid their tuition. They were not even residents of the state.

If Santorum had admitted to being wrong and repaid the commonwealth that would have been the end of it. Instead, the taxpayers of PA paid for these Virginia residents to attend a PA taxpayer funded school.

That was not a loophole - that was fraud.

[AmericanInTokyo]

Examine my post just now. It is a template of how to be FOR some candidate on here, rather than a) be nasty; b) name-call/ad hominem(s); c) tear down other conservative candidates; d) obsessively hang out on threads of a candidate you do not support, incessantly trashing him. We are one year apart of our membership on Free Republic, and quite frankly, I am a bit astounded. Your manners are rather uncalled for. You will note I attack the candidacies of Messrs. Bishop Romney, and Crazy Uncle Paul for the problems these liberals and anarchists would bring our party, but I am very measured in my commments about Speaker Gingrich as there is a good chance he would prevail, and out of respect for Jim Thompson and (probably the majority here) and I do not want to look like a contradictory fool nor say and do things that would damage his chances against Obongo in the General were he the nominee. Hey here's an idea. How about giving it a break for awhile and easing up on the Rick-Man. How about suspending the attacks and looking at things a little more circumspectly, realizing that Senator Santorum vanquishing Obama in November would be soundly cheered here on FR, so let us maybe kindly be careful about potential conservative standard bearers here. Chances are it is going to be either Gingrich or Santorum. I wish no ill will toward the Speaker. Let's come together here. The enemy is not each other, friend. The enemy sits in the WHITE HOUSE. I trust my comments will make sense and be appreciated.

[Dubya-M-DeesWent2SyriaStupid!]

Well said and kudos!I got your back.Who would have ever thought a conservative site would call people liberal trolls for supporting a tea party conservative candidate such as Santorum?I watched Perry,and Bachmann get bashed to pieces on this forum.And now Santorum?When did this forum cease being conservative?

[AmericanInTokyo]

If you reason with reasonable people, they will be reasonable back. Is what I feel.

[SatinDoll]

How is it trashing someone if what I say is true?

Gov. Mitt Romney was pro-abortion, pro-gay radical agenda, and raised taxes as he governed Massachusetts in a manner leaving no doubt as to his politcal beliefs. Definitely, Romney is no conservative.

Sen. Rick Santorum repeatedly voted in Congress as a fiscal liberal. If you want to see his voting record I will gladly provide it to you. As such, his record is more like that of a pro-life Democrat who loves earmarks and pork than that of a conservative Republican.

I will also repeat my statement from a couple weeks ago, that should Sen.Santorum decide to run for Gov. of Pennsylvania, won and governed as an across the board Conservative, I would give my unlimited support for his future Presidential run. He is still young and capable of learning a great deal from such an executive experience.

As both candidates have claimed to be Conservative and they are not, I refer to them as liars.

This is called being realistic, not nasty. Since it is also truthful, it is not tearing down another candidate.

I have used the same analysis on Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

I do not stalk pro-Santorum threads but I do follow those who tell half-truths about Gingrich, and as many of those seem to be Santorum cheerleaders it is obvious they can dish it out but can not take it.

Of one thing this year I’m certain, American in Tokyo; if we do not elect the right leader come this November, America as we know it will cease to exist.