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To: OddLane; wbill; haroldeveryman; taterjay
You have all made references to what could go wrong if the Giants milk the clock and attempt the field goal. But you have avoided the analysis of what could go wrong by giving Brady the ball with a minute to play and a timeout in hand. Merely saying that Tynes might miss or there might be a bad snap or they could fumble on the next play are all true. But what about the other side of the equation?

An article in Slate analyzes the probabilities of each strategy. The probability of the Giants' winning by killing the clock and attempting the field goal is calculated at 98%. The probability of the Giants' winning by scoring the uncontested touchdown and giving the Patriots a minute and a timeout to answer with a touchdown was computed at 88%. In other words, milking the clock gave the Pats a 2% chance of winning, while letting the Giants score gave them a 12% chance. That's a six times greater probability of New England winning the game. Here's the link.

47 posted on 02/07/2012 6:54:53 AM PST by TruthShallSetYouFree (How bad would an Obama II administration be, without the constraints of re-election?)
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To: TruthShallSetYouFree

All that is stupid in light of the fact that Brady had an entire game to score more than 17 points and couldn’t do it, so the liklihood of his team scoring 7 more in 58 seconds was not good. Folks should ignore crap like you’re trying to float because it does not take into the calculus the history of the game up to the 58 seconds. Defenses win super bowls. The Ginats’ defense won the game by shutting Brady and company down for only 17 points. How many points per game did the Pats avergae the whole year? ... But not against Piere-Paul & co. defenses!


48 posted on 02/07/2012 7:00:31 AM PST by MHGinTN (Being deceived can be cured.)
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To: TruthShallSetYouFree
Again, this sabermetrics fixation is great if you're plotting out the championship in a Fantasy Football League, but it doesn't take into account the reality of actual players.

Without any sort of context, taking a knee and getting tackled at the two makes sense.

If your kicker is David Akers, perhaps it would be foolish to try to score a touchdown.

But to pass up a guaranteed six points-when you're behind with less than a minute to go-in favor of a field goal attempt by a spotty kicker who almost missed two field goals under forty yards earlier in the game is absolute madness, Brady or no Brady.

50 posted on 02/07/2012 8:10:26 AM PST by OddLane (If Lionel Hutz and Guy Smiley had a lovechild together, his name would be "Mitt Romney." -KAJ)
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