I forgot about the Nevada caucus yesterday. I was tied up all day in a training class. I see now that Romney won.
But, I'm not discounting anything.
After Iowa, the delegate count was:
Santorum: 7
Romney: 7
Gingrich: 2
After New Hampshire, the delegate count was:
Romney: 14
Santorum: 7
Paul: 3
Gingrich: 2
After South Carolina, the delegate count was:
Gingrich: 25
Romney: 16
Santorum: 7
Paul: 3
After Florida, the delegate count was:
Romney: 66 (39 if proportional)
Gingrich: 25 (41 if proportional)
Santorum: 7 (14 if proportional)
Paul: 3 (7 if proportional)
After Nevada, the delegate count is approximately (results not fully in):
Romney: 78 (51 if FL is proportional)
Gingrich: 29 (45 if FL is proportional)
Santorum: 9 (16 if FL is proportional)
Paul: 7 (11 if FL is proportional)
IF the RNC and Florida followed its own rules, this would be a 6 delegate race right now. Furthermore, the headlines out of Florida would be different. I've said all along that I believe the MSM and the establishment RNC are astrorurfing the popularity for Romney to the point now where everyone wants to back the perceived winner.
And we all know that the RNC is keeping the penalized 50 Florida delegates in their back pocket, ready to reinstate them if necessary (again, on a winner-take-all basis) if Romney should fall behind after Super-Tuesday.
Even if Santorum's rightful delegates split, I'd think that Gingrich would get more than Romeny, making this race even closer than the 6 delegate separation between the two.
-PJ
Onyx, please allert the NEWT list (or anyone else you think might be interested) to PJT’s post above.
Do not ignore the 2 delegates to Jon Huntsman in NH.
Romney camp has known from the git-go that this was going to be close. Huntsman is ROmney’s cousin (think the grandfather with five wives in Mexico) The Huntsman family fortune is intertwined with Bain/Romney.
IMO Huntsman was used as a STRAW candidate to catch the ABR vote in NH, which vote will be used by ROmney at convention.
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