Posted on 02/01/2012 3:16:59 PM PST by SeekAndFind
Last night, a number of people on Twitter pointed out that Mitt Romney didn’t get a majority of the Florida primary vote and claimed that combining the percentages of all other competitors showed that he could still be stopped. I pointed out earlier that this assumes everyone wouldn’t vote for Romney as a second choice, which polling shows to be false (he was second among second choices in Florida), but let’s put that aside for a moment. To whom should conservatives look as the consolidation candidate? After watching Newt Gingrich lose two debates and suffer a steep reversal of fortunes in Florida, some look to Rick Santorum, such as Andrew Malcolm, who wonders if Gingrich has worn out his welcome:
In an amazingly graceless non-concession concession speech after not phoning the victor out of common competitive courtesy, Gingrich chose to talk not about minor matters such as how he proposes to win the Nov. 6 national general election against $1 billion.
No. Instead, Gingrich described in great detail what all he is already planning to do and sign during his first day in the Oval Office, in between taking the presidential oath and numerous inaugural parties.
Seriously.
After a humiliating defeat, Gingrich spoke of a two-man race, assuming his own GOP nomination and general election victories. Big ideas? Try loony ideas. The guy is living in a parallel universe.
Now, Gingrich takes his campaign to Nevada, the state with the most foreclosures in the nation, where he has three days to explain what he did for that $1.6 million that mortgage giant Freddie Mac paid him.
Jeffrey Anderson at The Weekly Standard looks at the numbers ahead:
In Missouri, where the next Republican primary will take place (next Tuesday), a new poll by PPP shows Rick Santorum leading Mitt Romney by 11 percentage points — 45 to 34 percent — while Ron Paul has 13 percent support. Newt Gingrich isn’t on the ballot in Missouri, so the Show Me State offers a prime opening for Santorum to build on his earlier victory in neighboring Iowa.
Perhaps even more encouraging for Santorum are the candidates’ respective favorability ratings among prospective primary voters in the state. Santorum’s net favorability rating is +42 percent (63 percent favorable to 21 percent unfavorable), compared to +10 percent for Romney (46 percent favorable to 36 percent unfavorable). (Paul’s net favorability rating is minus-29 percent — 28 percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable.)
Those aren’t the only numbers that suggest that Santorum could stand up better to Romney than Gingrich. PPP polling in key upcoming states show that Santorum challenges Romney more strongly in Ohio as well as Missouri:
Rick Santorum is leading the way for next week’s ‘beauty contest’ primary in Missouri with 45% to 34% for Romney, and 13% for Ron Paul. Newt Gingrich is not on the ballot for that, but he will be in the picture for Missouri’s caucus and leads the way for that with 30% to 28% for Santorum, 24% for Romney, and 11% for Paul.
In Ohio Gingrich is at 26% to 25% for Romney, 22% for Santorum, and 11% for Paul.
What might be most interesting in both states is what happens in a head to head between Romney and either Gingrich or Santorum:
-In Missouri Santorum leads Romney 50-37 and in Ohio Santorum leads 45-38.
-In Missouri Gingrich leads Romney 43-42 and in Ohio Gingrich leads 42-39.
Two takeaways from those numbers: if this ever came down to Romney, Paul, and just one out of Gingrich and Santorum, Romney would be in a lot of trouble. And he’d be in more trouble if the single conservative alternative ended up being Santorum.
It’s not just the numbers, either. The debates in Florida last week showed that Gingrich’s claim to mastery of the format simply don’t hold up. He lost both of those debates, and spent the rest of the week attacking Romney on religious freedom and proposing a lunar base that would cost hundreds of billions of dollars in an era where Republicans are arguing for reduced spending. If Gingrich was actually making the conservative case against Romney, I could see Sarah Palin’s point, but he’s not. He’s making a case for “big ideas” that involve a huge amount of spending, attacking Romney on any basis that happens to be handy, and he’s attacking the media.
The candidate actually making the conservative case on the campaign trail is Rick Santorum. Santorum scored points off of Romney in both Florida debates, especially the last one, because Santorum hasn’t ever backed an individual mandate as a health-care solution and doesn’t have to defend that position. He’s never backed TARP, either. That doesn’t make Santorum a perfect conservative candidate, but he seems to be the only one who’s focusing on the actual conservative agenda. Even if the motivation is to back a conservative alternative to Romney to “sharpen his steel” and force him to follow the conservative agenda, it’s Santorum who is most effective at making that the agenda.
Plus, there is one more thing to consider, and that is the quality of leadership. Both of the frontrunners and their allies have engaged in disappointing attacks on free market enterprise in an attempt to exploit each others’ weaknesses, but Santorum has refrained from doing so, even though he has specifically targeted blue-collar voters who might respond to those attacks. Santorum has maintained a high level of integrity in his campaigning, and that’s something to consider when choosing the man who will represent the party in the 2012 elections.
Santorum also has a new ad out today, “Deal,” which targets Gingrich. It’s running in Nevada and Colorado this week:
Can Newt carry Iowa?
That's not going to happen. Santorum has no chance and nobody else will be steping up to the plate. The choice is Romney or Gingrich.
Ed says what I’ve been arguing in comments for the past two days, regarding polling numbers and relative strengths. He probably said it better, or at least is a better vessel to possibly convey this message.
They say it isn’t talking to yourself that is a sign of insanity, but when you start arguing with yourself.
Lol, nobody was bashing capitalism or pandering to Hispanics. But keep on drinking that stinky MSM koolaid.
Samwise, I do think we’re seeing the same thing here.
You are backing Newt Gingrich, so you should know all about putting a shine on that one.
Utmost Certainty called it! LOLOL!!
OUCH.
Yes.
But not to worry, Mitt’s the one you’ll be voting for.
The establishment knows Gingrich is his own man. He has no more skeletons, and he knows what needs to be done to fix this country.
They see him as a loose cannon. Point is, they’ve assessed him, what he’s been saying and what he’s been doing, and they know he’ll go rogue when he gets to Washington.
Yes, of course I knew she had recovered -, at least was out of serious danger.
I actually did mention that, so what is your point?
It appears that you are trying to stir up anger. Ay least be honest in your replies to others.
It breaks my heart to see what Rush has become. Since the 2008 primaries, when he talked up Romney and ignored Thompson, I’ve been in a sort of mourning period, not wanting to accept the truth.
But truth wins over loyalty in the end. I know what Rush is, there’s no doubt in my mind.
“1998 ACU Ratings: Gingrich 100%, Paul 88%, Santorum 84% [last year all 3 were in Congress]”
Thanks for this.
Anyone still believe Rush, or Fox News, or Drudge?
Anyone still listening to them, watching them or going to their websites?
Lifetime ACU ratings are more revealing: Gingrich 1997 ACU was 75, btw.
Gingrich thru 1998: 90
Paul thru 2009: 82
Santorum Senate thru 2008: 88
Trivia for Reference:
Joe Scarborough ACU lifetime rating: 95
Here you are SierraWasp, here was my first reply to you:
“Is Rick Santorum the logical conservative alternative? (To Mitt Romney)
Wednesday, February 01, 2012 6:52:13 PM · 42 of 73
Ladysforest to SierraWasp
No - I am aware that he did that. Completely and perfectly the right and proper thing to do!
However, as soon as she (Bella) was out of the woods, he didn’t travel back to FL for the vote, instead he went to Nevada - Las Vegas, I believe.
He was not with his daughter yesterday.
Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies”
HERE IS YOUR RESPONSE:
“”He was not with his daughter yesterday.”
C’mon. If you knew her name, then you surely knew she recovered enough for him to leave her side.
I’ve got to go back to work now but I’ll be back to check this thread later to review all the snide comments that will undoubtedly come my way... oh well.”
We see that you tried to pretend that I did NOT mention Bella being out of immediate danger, tsk, tsk.
Why are you doing this? Why are you trying to make trouble out of nothing? Why?
Well okay... I also am leaning for Gingrich among the remaining contestants...but does that mean that I think that he is the Conservative that he pretended to be in the 90’s?
No Way!
Will I probably vote for him, yes - simply because of the candidates left in the race. Do I enthusiastically endorse him, heck no. He has changed his philosophy several times over his tenure in office and especially during his time out of office. Seems that is a problem that money creates.
This should have no causation on your put down of other Republican candidates. Be Conservative but not argumentative.
ONE WORD: NO.
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