More on Santorum.... I indicated back in Iowa that the Santorum effect would put us where we are today. He stood no chance then. He has no chance today. I took a lot of heat for it... But only the blind could not see this coming.
Okay, for the umpteenth time already TBBT, will you PLEASE stop trying to make Santroum the scapegoat in all of this?
Also, with this poll showing Romney at 44, how does 28+15(Highest polling number for Santorum) equal greater than 44?
I posted this last night on the voting demographics of FL. Newt is losing both the Seniors and Hispanic vote by nearly 2-1 margins. Those two groups are NOT the base of Santorum’s support, which is mostly in North FL.
When Newt was ahead by 8 in FL, Santorum had about the same level of support, and there wasn’t any complaining going on. But now that Newt is down 8 again, even though Santorum hasn’t really moved in the polls, you want to put the blame on him? Nice try, but it ain’t gonna fly.
“From another thread on FL Voting Demographics:
Do you actually live in FL?
Judging from all the comments referring to Santorum as a POS, I think not.
So let’s try this again to explain the voting Demographics for the state of Florida:
There’s two major voting blocks that compose a majority of FL GOP Voters:
1. Senior Citizens (I.E. over 65)
2. Hispanic Voters
There’s Tea Party and Grassroots folks merged in there between the two, but they may up a smaller, yet distinct group themselves, which is the group Gingrich currently carries pretty handedly over Romney.
Now, when Mitt and Newt have taken their turn being on top, it’s because each of the two groups tend to vote in a sort of majority union. For example, the Hispanic vote split will be about 2-1 in favor of the perceived winner. Likewise, the Senior vote will be close to that or 60-40 in favor of the winner.
These two groups have shifted back and forth. Newt had them on Monday before they moved back to Mitt. Because of the unison thing, you’ve seen an 8 point lead for Romney turn into an 8 point lead for Newt and vice-versa. The key to winning FL is winning these groups.
Santorum’s share of the pie is small. About 12%. Based on current polling, a split out vote might look like the following:
Romney: 43%
Newt: 35%
Santorum: 12%
Paul: 10%
Were Santorum to drop out, Newt would need 2/3 of Santorum supporters just to pull back to even with Romney. But Romney would probably get the other 1/3, pushing him a point or two higher, meaning Newt still couldn’t get to Mitt on Santorum’s voters alone.
The key to winning FL (like I have said before) is winning the Senior vote and the Hispanic vote. The Evangelical vote, while still distinct in FL, is not large enough to deliver the state.
And here’s the other problem. Even if Santorum dropped out and Newt was able to hold on by the edge of his seat to take the state in a nail-biter by getting enough of Santorum’s voters, it would most likely mean that Romney dominated the Hispanic vote. If that’s the case, the MSM will run with the mantra that Gingrich is weak with Hispanics in anticipation of the NV Caucuses and AZ primary next month. While polls show close races in both states, that will change depending on the FL results and breakdown.
Santorum’s support has not changed in FL in almost 3 weeks. It has remained around the 11-13% range. When Newt was getting over 40%, Santorum was in the 11-13% range, and now that Newt is polling in the low 30’s, you want to put the blame on Santorum even though he is still in the same 11-13% range? This doesn’t make any logical sense.
Newt had an 8 point lead in FL when he was leading Seniors and Hispanics. For now, that isn’t the case. If he turns it around before Tuesday, he will once again swap places with Romney and carry the state by 6-7 points. But regardless of whether Newt wins the state or not, it is not dependent on where Santorum finishes, because whether Newt wins or loses FL, Santorum will still get about 12% and no more.
Things look bleak right now in FL, but I’m not going to let you people try and make Santorum a scapegoat. Like I said in SC, he and Newt have different bases they both appeal to, and as SC showed, Santorum’s 17% in SC did not harm Newt from taking the state by double digits.
Lastly, even though FL is a closed GOP primary, many former Northeastern Republicans live here. Rudy got 15% and Romney got 31% last time, and not taking into account the GOP voters that describe themselves as “liberal” that voted for John McCain last time in his 36% amount, this puts the liberal/moderate faction of the GOP in FL close to 50%. McCain won the FL primary in 2008 because he dominated the Hispanic vote, despite losing the Senior vote to Romney.
This is why between now and Tuesday, the most important groups to pay attention to are Seniors and the Hispanics.
Santorum can claim conservatism - I want to see it in action when it will actually cost ‘him’ something! Rhetoric and holier than thou attitude only goes so far - the proof is in the pudding. Either he’s a patriot or not. Either it’s about our country or Santorum. It’s a ‘put up or shut up’ moment for Santorum. Like our soldiers in battle - it’s about winning against evil/enemies at the risk of their own demise. Totally unselfish and God bless them all! And this will not literally kill Santorum - only his pride.
The very least he can do is STOP attacking Newt if he makes the decision to stay in the race. And STOP aligning him with Mitt!