Just a minute. In your good old-fashioned MAD scenario, what happens again if Israel pre-emptively attacks Iran or Iran attacks Israel?
Pragmatism happens.
MAD works quite well with rational actors. Israel is a rational actor by any definition. Iran? That remains to be seen. While I wouldn’t classify Ahmedenijad as the most “rational” human being on earth, he doesn’t have command of Iran’s (potential) nuclear forces. Ayatollah Ali Khameni has that dubious honor. So then the question becomes, how rational of an actor is Khameni?
If the Russians are serious, and let’s say they sign an agreement with Iran to the effect of a defense treaty, that would very likely preclude Israel from any pre-emptive attack, in which case they’ll continue with what they’re doing now, strategic assassinations of key nuclear program personnel.
Then what would the Iranians do? Or more to the point, what would Ayatollah Khameni do? Would he go full out with an attempted nuclear attack, or would he realize he’s now sitting pretty, and largely immune to any negative consequences of his nations nuclear program, which at that point could ostensibly continue (well, provided they don’t continue losing their nuclear scientists). It’s no secret Khameni has in the past put the smackdown on Ahmedenijad, and there are reports of a good deal of dissatisfaction with Ahmedenijad on Khameni’s part.
So, this is the key question: Is Khameni a rational enough actor to accept the basic operating principle of MAD? The answer to that question is the whole enchilada. Would he authorize a nuclear attack on Israel, knowing full-well that Israel easily has a considerable retaliatory capability?
Of course, the only downside I’ve always seen with MAD is the potential for a nuke as a terrorist weapon. If the terrorist are smart, they won’t claim responsibility, which leaves the aggrieved party’s options limited.
The Israelis would do well to say that if any nuclear attack is visited upon them, they would automatically hold Iran fully responsible, regardless of who does (or doesn’t) take responsibility for such an attack, and will respond accordingly (i.e., nuclear retaliation).
A pre-emptive attack against Iran should’ve been done several years ago....around 2007, I’d say. For reasons best known to themselves, the Israelis didn’t do so. To be honest, I don’t think they will. I think they’ll continue on their current covert operations, which they likely perceive as being preferable to an all-out shooting war.
Putin would go nuclear. Obama would call for restraint and then go golfing.