You’re right...
I’m not too optimistic about the chances of stopping Romney. I don’t see the Rick/Rick clingers loosening their grip. This is mostly likely to play out as it did in 2008. Except this time Romney’s margin of victory will be bigger.
We’ll see next week when fresh polls come out. Possible outcomes...
- Santorum switches places with Newt in the polls but is still well short of beating Romney (best case scenario for Santorum).
- Newt slides, Santorum gains, and the both meet around 20%, well short of what’s needed to beat Romney.
- The polls remain static - leading to Romney win.
- The only chance that Romney looses S.C.: Somehow S.C. realizes the realities of the battle field and move towards Newt. This depends on how big the Anti-Romney sentiment is in S.C. - something that I’m not sure is that large. Being the optimist that I am - this is probably the least likely outcome.
“Santorum switches places with Newt in the polls but is still well short of beating Romney (best case scenario for Santorum).”
He’s winning in NC? Why is that?
Best case scenario - Santorum beats Mitt, Newt beats Mitt, Santorum beats Newt (as in NC), and Mitt finishes third.
“Somehow S.C. realizes the realities of the battle field and move towards Newt”
It’s like taking a quiz. All the answers have the same one. Newt.
... why are you looking at me like that? All the Paul supporters assure me it's going to happen!