Yup. Almost exactly the same scenario as last time around playing out.
For all the talk about the “establishment” rigging the contest, I´d put more of the blame on “ego” on the part of the non-moderate candidates who carry on and split the conservative vote, despite having small chances for actually winning the nomination.
It´s not strange that conservatives are more numerous than moderates in the GOP primaries, but a quirk of that phenomena is that it gives the moderate wing a strategic advantage, as their vote is less divided.