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I won’t be running the model for the 46 counties there until the 20th that way I have all the updated information.

However, based on the current situation.

I project Santorum will get 80% of 08 Huck, 25% of Fred, and whatever vote of Duncan Hunter

I project Perry gets 5% of Huck and 5% of Fred, and about 1% of McCain consisting mostly of military retirees

I project Gingrich gets 15% of Huck, 70% of Fred, and about 30% of McCain

Assuming Huntsman stays in, he gets 50% of Rudy’s total, and 4% of McCain’s total.

Romney ends up with whatever he got from 08, 65% of McCain votes, and 50% of Rudy’s total. If Huntsman drops off, Romney gains most if not all of Rudy’s support and the additional 4% of McCain’s totals.

Ron Paul gets his totals from 2008, plus whatever increase there is in the county for new voters.

Based on these projections...not good. Romney would win a large enough majority in the modern areas to offset the more conservative areas. Between now and the 21st, Newt needs to work to regain 45-50% of the McCain voters. As of right now, he and Santorum are locked in a close battle for second. Newt could pull a larger share of the Evangelicals than 15%, but doing so won’t get him closer to Romney. He has to go after the McCain voters. Doing this will allow him to compete in first, while at the same time push Romney down to as low as 3rd.