[kabar]

Iraq is in 3rd or 4th place on our list of problems in that region. Our biggest problems are our artificial reliance on Middle Eastern oil, an unstable Pakistan and its nukes, and Iran. If we don't address those other problems, Iraq will not matter, and we can prop up Iraq for decades to come, but it still won't address the other three problems.

The top five exporting countries accounted for 69 percent of United States crude oil imports in September 2011 while the top ten sources accounted for approximately 88 percent of all U.S. crude oil imports. The top five sources of US crude oil imports for September were Canada (2,324 thousand barrels per day), Saudi Arabia (1,465 thousand barrels per day), Mexico (1,099 thousand barrels per day), Venezuela (759 thousand barrels per day) and Nigeria (529 thousand barrels per day).

The rest of the top ten sources, in order, were Colombia (510 thousand barrels per day), Iraq (403 thousand barrels per day), Ecuador (299 thousand barrels per day), Angola (283 thousand barrels per day) and Russia (275 thousand barrels per day). Total crude oil imports averaged 9,006 thousand barrels per day in September, which is a decrease of (16) thousand barrels per day from August 2011.

We only get about 15% of our oil from the Saudis. It is not an artificial reliance until we get our own. And the Saudis will have no problem selling their oil to someone else.

We don't rely on Pakistan, but rather, we have strategic national interests that require us to seek viable bilateral relations. Our relationship with Pakistan has been something of a roller coaster ride ovfer a number of years. The war in Afghanistan forced us to seek better relations so we could support our forces in Afghanistan transiting Pakistan.

Iraq occupies an important strategic position in the region. What happens there will affect our relationships with other countries including Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf countries. Iran seeks hegemony over the region. If they acquire nuclear weapons, you can expect the Saudis and others to do the same thing. This will have serious implications for Israel. Remember how upset the Israelis got when they found out that the Saudis were acquiring IRBMs from China in the mid-80s?

That's why I liked Gingrich's take on the situation - Pakistan, Iran, and Middle Eastern oil are all much bigger regional problems.

Newt, as usual, is talking thru his hat. You can't isolate one problem from another or somehow address them in a hierarchical fashion. What happens in Iraq will affect Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the region and vice versa.

[af_vet_rr]

I call it an artificial reliance because we could provide for our oil needs through other means/countries if we chose to do so. We choose not to, therefore there is a reliance of our own doing. It's dangerous because there are plenty of radicals in Saudi Arabia who would like to depose the royals and cut off oil sales to the US, and even start something with the Shiites directly or indirectly.

As far as the others, if Iraq falls to the extremists, it's bad. We know that Saudi Arabia and Iran are funding opposite sides of what could be a potential civil war in Iraq. Most of us expect Iraq to devolve into civil war, and I don't think we need to be involved.

Pakistan is a much bigger problem. If Pakistan and its nukes fall to the extremists, it's a nightmare scenario. Everybody worries about Iran getting nukes, but Pakistan not only has nukes, but it can't control parts of its territory, and there are known radicals currently in the Pakistani government. If the radicals take over Pakistan's arsenal, they are going to target us and our allies, and they are going to target India and you get the people in there who want their 70 virgins and they'll push the button.