Is there a math/statistician here on FR that can compute the odds of that happening? a 6 vote rise in 4 years?
That’s practically unbelievable considering people turning 18/dying, coming to/leaving the state. To say nothing of shifting issue opinions in a 4 year span, the economy, war, unemployment etc. I can’t imagine how it’s possible to be that static. It’s like someone froze the state in time.
“Is there a math/statistician here on FR that can compute the odds of that happening? a 6 vote rise in 4 years?”
Well, assuming voting range within 5 percent, that’s still around 5k voters, assuming that voting population is flat.
6/5k would be about a 10th of a percent. So you would have to go through 1000 elections to see a similar pattern.
Assuming 50 contested primaries over 4 years, that’s around 80 years for us to see this turn up in a primary election.