Sarah will follow the Gingrich model of someone made radioactive by the press...she will bide her time and repair her image by appearing “moderate” until such a time where her negatives return to normal and she can try for ofice again.
I think Sarah will just continue being Sarah. The press don't like her, she's knows it, but she also understands how to use their hatred of her to keep her name in the spotlight. The continued media attention allows her to do RealityTV, paid speeches, political commentary, etc, which make her a lot of money and allow her to take care of her family. When her name fades a bit, she knows she can say something, hint a future presidential run, etc, and get back in the spotlight. I don't see her "moderating" at all. Actually, I think she's become more conservative than she was as a politician in Alaska.
If Obama wins in 2012 and you see Palin drop out of the spotlight after the 2014 midterms, I'd suspect she was preparing a run in 2016. It would mean she is brushing up on issues and preparing to re-emerge as a presidential candidate instead of a RealityTV star/commentator. The same applies after the 2018 midterms if Obama loses in 2012.
Palin will never accept a VP slot again though - nor is it likely any nominee would choose her (though any of them will seek her support and endorsement). It is very possible that Sarah is done with being a candidate/politician and believes she can be more effective as a commentator. Either way, I don't see her "moderating" at all. If anything, I'd bet she will tack further to the right.