Replies

In Florida, Gingrich is in the lead already, close to 40%. Romney has a ceiling near 30%. Paul is unlikely to draw more than 10% to 15% tops in Florida.

With all the other candidates out of the race, with the possible exception of Perry, Gingrich is likely to take very close to 50% of the vote, and immediately put him in the lead in terms of the delegate count, which is the only count that counts.

After Florida, there will only be three candidates left: Romney, Gingrich and Paul. Gingrich gets close to 60% in most of the remaining states. Case closed.

The key to realizing who will win and who will lose the nomination is that once you conclude that Romney has a ceiling of probably somewhere near 30% of the Republican vote, it's just a matter for the rest of the field to whittle down to the candidate who is most acceptable in most of the states. And that clearly is Gingrich, who has an established national track record.

-Excerpt from TheStreet.com today