I keep seeing this and I disagree. McCain did want to win. Anyone who runs for President and has been in the game as long as McCain has, anyone who went through what he did in 2000, anyone who spent 6 years in an NVA tiger cage, of course they want to win. You’re saying McCain wanted to lose? I don’t buy that.
I think what happened and the polls bear this out is that the economic meltdown that started in mid-September ended his chances and he knew it.
It was the equivalent of a slew of injuries to your favorite NFL team. Look at the Bears for instance. They were 7-2 and in great shape. Then their QB Cutler and their top RB Forte both got injured. Since then they’ve lost 6 in row or something like that and their offense has been abysmal. Is that really the coach’s fault? No one is blaming the coach.
The meltdown wasn’t McCain’s fault. Once that happened the election was over. Just like it will be if the market loses 30% in Sep 2012 and the media starts talkng about a new Depression every second on TV.
When you add to that that W had a 25% approval rating and he was being out spent by 400 million dollars, there’s really no way anyone should have expected McCain to win. And of course once everyone knew Obama was going to win as of Sep 15th or so, McCain’s support nosedived in a number of states and it ended up padding Obama’s #s.
Given W’s support level and the spending edge it’s amazing McCain did as well as he did. The #s tell me that if W was even at 35% instead of 25% McCain likely wins. If W was even at a putrid 40% McCain definitely wins.
And I will always believe that if the meltdown hadn’t happened, McCain would have won, despite W’s awful #s. At the least it would have been a vere close election a la 2000 or 2004. I still believe there was some shenanigans beihnd the scenes to cause it. It’s too much of a coincidence that just as Obama really started to look vulnerable for the 1st time and people began to think McCain would win, the entire economy collapsed and delivered the victory to Obama.
Now, I will say this. Once it happened, McCain was left with one option. To just go 100% negative and scorched earth and make Obama totally unacceptable. That I agree he didn’t have the stomach for and wouldn’t do.
Why? Because I think he knew Obama would win anyway and he didn’t want to be remembered as the guy who ran a last ditch smear campaign against the 1st black President, taht I agree with.
But he did want to win. Events he had nothing to do with made it impossible.
This time it will be very difficult. The economy is improving and will improve even more by next fall. Unemployment will be below 8% and voters will see it as getting better. Obama will have a lock on 95% of blacks and 65% of hispanics. Romney or whoever will need 61 or 62% of the white vote and that just isn’t likely to happen.
I agree with everything you said in post 44.
It might be presented that way, but it is "improving" now because those who had 99 weeks of benefits are starting to run out, and when they are off the list, they don't count any more. It is as bogus as calculating the CPI without energy and food prices and using that to establish inflation.
White men. You only need that percentage of white men to win. That percentage carried 2010 and has been deep-dived in the interim and under no circumstances are they voting for Obama.
Also under no circumstances does Bobo get the Amish vote in the same percentages; 3-5% are going to sit on their hands this time ie not take the stinkin bus ride to the polls for a free sandwich and iced tea.
Two options. Option #2 was to vote against the Paulson-Goldman Sachs bailout.
It would have gotten him my vote for one.