Posted on 12/23/2011 3:01:45 PM PST by BCrago66
Right now, it looks like Ron Paul will win in Iowa, primarily because in that state Democrats can switch their registration to Republican & caucus the same day. Romney should win in New Hampshire, primarily because he's been campaigning there for 6 years. However, Gingrich will "place" in both states, most likely at number two. And - most importantly - Gingrich has a significant polling leads in both South Carolina and Florida.
Thus, in my opinion, whether Gingrich can get the nomination depends upon whether his polling leads in SC & FL can survive the anti-momentum of losing in both IA and NH. I think likely they can, because:
1) Voters this year will be forced into greater thoughtfulness by our troubled economic situation, and will not simply chase momentum,
2) In South Carolina, Gingrich is better organized than he is in other states, with at least 5 offices, some of them open since October. And Newt has kept his profile high in SC, continuing his visits even in the run-up to the Iowa Caucus, and,
3) South Carolina doesn't let Democrats vote in the Republican primary, South Carolinian are too normal to vote for Paul, and they are too conservative to vote in great numbers for Romney.
We'll find out soon if I'm talking through my hat.
Sounds good to me. GO NEWT!
I just finished watching the entire video. It was well worth the time.
GO NEWT GO......
We will see what happens. I think you are right that SC is not going to vote for Paul...but SC is an open primary state. I would personally like to see Bachmann do well in Iowa and SC; but Guessing that unless she wins or places high in the first few primaries she may drop out due to funding..
Well, that kinda sucks. I assumed that SC would be more rational than that. Well, there’s a smaller percentage of Democrats in SC in the first place, so there a smaller pool of people who can switch registrations & vote for Paul. So there’s that consolation.
Do you happen to know if C-span will be replaying this on TV? thanks.
Did Newt discuss his amnesty plan or mention what Sheriff Joe has been going through of late?
If Paul somehow wins Iowa, it will be seen as a worthless victory. Iowans will look like idiots....again.
NH is another nothing state.
That is why people were so keen on stripping them of their place in line. They have taken too much money and time from needed contests just to stroke the egos of people that think way to much of themselves.
I linked to the archive recording of the event earlier in the day - so you can watch it online anytime. You can check the C-Span schedule to see if it’s ever replayed on TV:
http://www.c-spanvideo.org/schedule
And Gator, Newt did talk about immigration, and the audience was more receptive to his ideas than you apparently are.
Bump that...South Carolina and Florida are the first REAL primaries. NH thinks they are kingmakers...but the rest of America just laughs.
You’re wrong about #3...South Carolina has an open primary; you don’t have to declare a political party affiliation to cast a vote in the SC primary.
2 out of 3 ain’t bad.
You’re wrong about #3...South Carolina has an open primary; you don’t have to declare a political party affiliation to cast a vote in the SC primary.
Right on! Right on! I’m not a registered republican so in a way, I’m glad it’s an open primary, that way I can at least cast a vote for my first choice.
Maybe the problem with Iowa is just how easy it is for a small number of committed activists to manipulate the results of a contest in a low population state. With a big state like SC, it’s much harder if not impossible, even with a open primary.
BTW, thanks for voting for Newt!
Get lost.
This is the first time I’ve really paid attention to Iowa because of Newt. Iowans love their time in the spotlight, but seem too stupid to do their homework on Paul, or dismiss millions of dollars of dishonest ads by Romney. just my opinion...
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South Carolina