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No, Ron Paul is not a threat to win the Iowa Caucuses
Redstate ^ | 12/13/2011 | Neil Stevens

Posted on 12/13/2011 2:28:23 PM PST by TBBT

It doesn’t matter what you think the new Public Policy Polling result says. It doesn’t matter how many gleeful Democrats are writing up news stories claiming it’s true. It’s not.

Ron Paul, King of Earmarks, Full Metal Truther, and Archbishop of the anti-American Gnostic Constitutionalists, is not going to win the Iowa caucuses or even get close for one simple reason.

He wins people who don’t vote, but the Iowa caucuses only admit Republicans.

(Excerpt) Read more at redstate.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: iowa; paul
Let hope not...

Plus...Paul leads in young and new voters... Less likely to actually show up.

1 posted on 12/13/2011 2:28:29 PM PST by TBBT
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To: TBBT
"..the Iowa caucuses only admit Republicans."

At the risk of bursting your bubble: Thanks to the liberals, Iowa has same-day registration.

So everyone who shows up will be a registered Republican.

2 posted on 12/13/2011 2:33:59 PM PST by Designer (Nit-pickin' and chagrinin')
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To: TBBT

I find it hard to believe that anyone believes that Ron Paul will somehow steal the caucuses.


3 posted on 12/13/2011 2:39:45 PM PST by editor-surveyor (No Federal Sales Tax - No Way!)
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To: TBBT

He doesn’t have to win to remain a potential threat to Newt and Mitt. A top 3 finish will certainly help his candidacy.

Bachmann and Santorum are the ones who will be severely damaged by Paul, because imo if neither finishes in the top 3, fund raising dollars will start to dry up.


4 posted on 12/13/2011 2:40:27 PM PST by JosephMama (Who to choose, who to choose...)
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To: Designer
At the risk of bursting your bubble: Thanks to the liberals, Iowa has same-day registration.

So everyone who shows up will be a registered Republican.


Your beef isn't with me, but Neil Stevens who wrote the article. Noted by Stevens in the article:

Every time, and I mean every time, I bring up the fact that the Iowa Caucuses are closed, the reply is that “You can register up to the day of the caucuses to participate.” That’s true. But if Paul is not able to motivate his supporters to register, and if his people aren’t actually committed to caucus for Paul, then his support is soft, and isn’t going to show up.

Neil goes on with further analysis to support his argument...
5 posted on 12/13/2011 2:40:59 PM PST by TBBT
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To: TBBT

When I meet a Ron Paul supporter, I steer the conversation to sports.


6 posted on 12/13/2011 2:43:05 PM PST by vekzen
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To: TBBT

Ron Paul is the ONLY GOP candidate that I would seriously consider NOT voting for, even though Obama is the opposing candidate.


7 posted on 12/13/2011 2:52:51 PM PST by Signalman
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To: TBBT
Interesting note buried in the article:

InsiderAdvantage suggests some sort of Operation Chaos-style attempt going on in Iowa, as Michele Bachmann leads among Democrats.

The suggestion is Democrats will participate in the GOP caucus and support Bachmann.

8 posted on 12/13/2011 2:55:21 PM PST by Brookhaven
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To: TBBT

The author of that article is very ignorant.

Not only does Paul get his supporters to register, but he gets them to attend the caucuses.

In the past, because of his ability to get his supporters to the caucuses, he has had a lot of success in Iowa and has *always* done much better than his polling numbers.

The fact that Ron Paul is within shooting distance of someone like Newt who has not done as much work to assure his supporters attend the caucuses is very significant and means he has a legitimate shot of winning Iowa.

.


9 posted on 12/13/2011 3:00:17 PM PST by bobk333
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To: vekzen
When I meet a Ron Paul supporter, I steer the conversation to sports.

LOL. What kind of sports are Paulbots interested in, do you find? Synchronized swimming? Dwarf Tossing?

10 posted on 12/13/2011 3:04:06 PM PST by lonevoice (Klepto Baracka Marxo, impeach we much. We will much about that be committed.)
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To: Brookhaven
Well in the internals there were 31 Democrats polled.

Approx. 17 percent went to Bachmann and 17 percent went to Newt. Romney does 3rd best with Dems and Paul does 4th and Perry does 5th.

They shouldn't even poll Democrats. A side note Perry actually does 2nd best among Republicans, 2nd to Newt.

11 posted on 12/13/2011 3:22:45 PM PST by normy (Don't take it personally, just take it seriously.)
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To: TBBT

None of these causes or primaries matter until South Carolina. Thats when the true conservatives show up.


12 posted on 12/13/2011 3:32:45 PM PST by TennTuxedo
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To: TBBT
Plus...Paul leads in young and new voters... Less likely to actually show up.

Much less know what day of the week it is.

Paulbot #1: [long toke] "Dude! I think we're supposed to like, vote or something!"
Paulbot #2: "Naw dude, we did that last time!"


13 posted on 12/13/2011 3:37:59 PM PST by COBOL2Java (Obama is the least qualified guy in whatever room he walks into.)
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To: TBBT

Judging by the activity on youtube, where positive remarks on his videos run probably 10-15 X negative ones, his supporters are very focused, active, and willing to spend time and energy supporting him.

That suggests they will indeed show up to vote for him in Iowa. Not good.


14 posted on 12/13/2011 3:45:31 PM PST by expat1000
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To: TBBT

“Ron Paul - King of Earmarks”

http://www.opensecrets.org/earmarks/index.php?type=H&cycle=2009

I think not. Forget the alleged this and that. Those are the facts.

Which candidate will cut FED spending the fastest?


15 posted on 12/13/2011 3:49:05 PM PST by cowtowney
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To: Signalman
"NOT voting for"

There's no way I will vote for that scoundrel. There must be other candidates on the ballot. If the Pubbies, realizing a severe death wish, ever nominate this jerk, that's the end of me supporting the Republican Party.

16 posted on 12/13/2011 3:51:57 PM PST by driftless2
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To: TBBT

I hate to tell Stevens this, but Ron Paul has a massive project underway to enlist Democrats to commit fraud and hijack the caucuses. It’s called “Blue Republicans.”


17 posted on 12/13/2011 3:52:41 PM PST by dangus
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To: TBBT

I predict a win for Ron Paul in Iowa.

It doesn’t mean, of course, he’ll run the table. But I do think he will win in Iowa. Momentum there is big for him.


18 posted on 12/13/2011 4:24:43 PM PST by agrarianlady
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To: agrarianlady

>>I predict a win for Ron Paul in Iowa.<<

Does anybody, and I do mean anybody, realize that Ron Paul will be 77 years old by election day, 2012?

What percentage of the women over 50 in this country are going to trust a 77 year old man with the power of the Presidency? My bet is almost none of them.


19 posted on 12/13/2011 5:17:24 PM PST by Norseman (Defund the Left-Completely!)
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Thanks TBBT.
20 posted on 12/14/2011 6:25:48 AM PST by SunkenCiv (Merry Christmas, Happy New Year! May 2013 be even Happier!)
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