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To: RockinRight
As voter mood now stands, this election will not be a choice between Newt and Obama, between Romney and Obama, between Perry and Obama, or between your favorite candidate (she's NOT running!) and Obama. Currently, this election will be pretty much an up or down referendum on Obama. The poll is essentially correct on both Mitt and Newt, based on current support; the outcome is not generated by pollster bias. Additionally, this is "registered voters", not "likely voters", so the actual GOP performance would be significantly better than projected.

What this leaves out is the political campaign. Barry will spend $1B to convince voters that he may be incompetent but [insert GOP nominee's name] is just as bad, and advertising dollars are effective. Our nominee (or the GOP leadership's nominee) will spend half as much, or less, trying to convince voters that "Bush's fault" is getting old, and that our economic mess is Obama's fault. If the election is seen as about character, Obama gains, since people don't want to admit he's a scum, to avoid having his supporters will call them racist. If the election is seen as about the economy, the GOP wins, since Obama said he could fix it in less than four years with shovel ready jobs, he spent $5T in a massive Stimulus that failed just as massively, and the economy is worse than it was.

17 posted on 12/13/2011 7:32:31 AM PST by Pollster1 (Natural born citizen of the USA, with the birth certificate to prove it)
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To: Pollster1

“Didn’t see this posted yet. If Newt (with his supposed negatives) is leading Barry in PA...perhaps all this news of “Obama feels optimistic” is just BS.”

No, that’s not what this poll is saying. Take the EV’s of the swings and split ‘em.


18 posted on 12/13/2011 7:38:44 AM PST by BenKenobi (Honkeys for Herman! 10 percent is enough for God; 9 percent is enough for government)
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