Invasion or occupation of Japan or the complete destruction of the Pacific fleet would not have "finished the job," if by that you mean winning the war for Japan.
Not having Hawaii as a forward base would have greatly impeded the American counter-attack, but would not have changed the end result in any way. Though things might have gotten very dicey for Oz.
I estimate it would have taken America two additional years to defeat the Japs without Hawaii or a Pacific fleet.
But they would still have had the Bomb in '45, so it might not have taken much longer than it did anyway.
The Bomb might have been first used as a naval weapon. Say goodbye to the massed Japanese fleet.
Those who launched the attack knew perfectly well it wasn't within their power to defeat America. Some probably thought America would roll up and quit if hit hard enough.
But most realized, accurately, that American sanctions were forcing Japan into a position where they had only two choices:
Retreat to the home islands and abandon any hope of being a world power.
Launch a desperate attack in the hope that they might win despite the odds.
What they absolutely, positively could not do was stop where they were.
I don’t disagree with what you wrote at all. I may not have been clear enough with my previous post but taking Hawaii and delaying the seemingly inevitable American victory gave Japan the best chance to keep some of their gains through a brokered peace. We will never know how it would have worked out but there is always the chance that the costs would have been too high or America would have grown tired of war. Japan could have offered to return Hawaii in a brokered peace allowing them to keep other gains.
We will never know if they could have sued for peace prior to the bomb but there is little doubt that we would have been very crippled without Hawaii and the fleet they left.
I don’t disagree with what you wrote at all. I may not have been clear enough with my previous post but taking Hawaii and delaying the seemingly inevitable American victory gave Japan the best chance to keep some of their gains through a brokered peace. We will never know how it would have worked out but there is always the chance that the costs would have been too high or America would have grown tired of war. Japan could have offered to return Hawaii in a brokered peace allowing them to keep other gains.
We will never know if they could have sued for peace prior to the bomb but there is little doubt that we would have been very crippled without Hawaii and the fleet they left.