Any idea of when California will reach that tipping point?
Best I can do is an educated guess. California is on the verge of bankruptcy NOW and they keep re-electing wack-jobs to drive it in deeper. At least one CA city has already gone bankrupt, but apparently it will have to get worse.
I figure they figure that they'll get more bail outs to save them no matter how they run the place into the ground. From that I would figure there will be no turn around until we have a fedgov who will make it clear THERE IS NO MORE MONEY!!! Ultimately they have to face reality because reality doesn't go away in the face of hopes and denial.
I used to live there in the Silicon Valley until I escaped to America. There's a huge amount of money there still available to be plundered from the wealthy, but not everybody's wealthy. People are pouring out of there and taking their small businesses with them.
I live in a small city in AZ now and our local U-Haul was so jammed that their very large parking lot was absolutely filled with rental trucks. You could scarcely get through to the storage lockers. I guess they have to dead head the trucks back to somewhere people are escaping from. And that doesn't count the people who get professional movers.
I guarantee you that the people coming here (not Phoenix) are not illegals and ours have almost disappeared. Everybody knows where they hang out to pick up day work and you used to see groups of 20 or more. That shrunk down to about 5 to 7 and now I haven't seen them for a while. Maybe they're hanging out somewhere else or maybe they've gone. I'm not saying there aren't any, but you sure don't see them like you used to.
About a year ago a California friend stopped by and told me people were asking high amounts for their houses and still getting the price, but that's where the buyers are mostly Chinese and Indians and there are apparently still enough tech jobs to support that. The towns I know of where that's happening also have award winning schools which the Asians value highly and their children tend to maintain if not raise the quality of those schools. Other places I don't know about specifically.
But I do know that when the money is gone, things will change. Hopefully people will wise up. I know one other thing Asians tend to be centered on is finances. I remember back in the '90s when we were just learning about La Reconquista at the same time property all around us was being bought up by Asians. I wondered at that time what would happen when ravaging hordes of "entitled" but unskilled illegals would clash with that other demographic. I still don't know, but I'm so glad I'm not there any more.
I wish I knew more personally about other areas of California to have a feel for what it would take to slam the "progressive" voters into sanity, but I don't. I do know that non-coastal California is less reality challenged, but the population there is smaller than in the coast's big cities so the voting remains dumb.
My guess is it'll all hit the fan when some of those big cities can't pay the protection money. There's enough concentration of technology business in some of the cities to keep going and I think that type business thrives on being in a general milieu or concentration of tech society so that some of those businesses will be more resistant to going elsewhere.
I wish I had a better guess for exactly when, but I don't. I'm seven years out of date. I think you can count on it happening when the very wealthy can't protect themselves from the gangs, leeches, and invaders. Whether that will result in a political sea change or total collapse remains to be seen.