What’s the evidence for saying the debate stage matters more than ever?
Maybe in the primaries this cycle, but I sure don’t see that in the general.
Why? Because Obama is the most polarizing President in history.
No one who supports Obama/Dems is going to give a rat’s behind how Obama performs in the debates. They are going to vote for him.
No one who supports defeating Obama by voting for the anyone-but-Obama GOP nominee is going to give a rat’s behind how the GOP nominee performs in the debates.
And if the argument is based on the mushy middle — well, we all know where that gets you.
And first, there just aren’t many people who aren’t in one camp or the other. The entire nation has been galvanized by Obamacare and the economy; most people have decided whether they want Obama in or out in 2012, that much they know.
Anyone who hasn’t made up their mind yet on that question just isn’t paying attention. And people who aren’t paying attention now, sure as hell are not the types to watch presidential debates and make up their mind based solely, or even mostly, on those.
Listen closely and most people pushing the debates as a reason for a particular candidate just want the sheer joy of watching Obama maybe get his butt kicked.
That might be a fun spectacle, but it’s not going to change a significant number of votes, IMO.
In fact, if Newt whups up on Obama, it’s likely to increase voter intensity in his base, particularly among those Dems who absolutely HATED Newt back when he was Speaker.
There are a lot of those Dems still around. They’re going to have the same reaction as Republicans would if, 15 years from now the Dems nominated Nancy Pelosi. They think we would forget and not be motivated by how we regarded her during her tenure as Speaker?