ALL POLLS, that is without exception all public released polls are for profit marketing tools to shape public opinion. They only work as long as gullible people pay attention to them. Best poll is to ask people you know and what you see from people you learned to trust.
I can't speak for others, but the people I know and trust tend conservative. It won't be a good representation of the public at large. That's why I take all those anectotes of "everyone I talk to says he's toast" with a pound of salt.
Consider, This Pollster consistently shows Romney as one of the top 3 with strong double digit results. Yet 3/4 of conservatives and most evangelicals can’t stand him. Common sense tells you hes not doing well at all. Yet...
"I can't believe Nixon won! I don't know a single person who voted for him!"
--New Yorker film critic, Pauline Kael, 1972.