Right. Also, a shift or a trend usually shows in a national poll before it shows in state polls. What I’m seeing is that Cain has mostly lost support among women and independents. He hasn’t lost much support among his base, which is why he still leads in most primary polls.
I would also say that there is a strong possibility that this election, there well be a heavy turnout in the primaries, which will be increased in numbers by Independents and Moderates.
Also remember that primary straw polls are seldom a good way to gage actual voter support. They tend to be very partisan and locally influenced by strong activist participation.