Odds are, though, you'll never get it below a four-man race.
Romney's got his 25% -- no more, probably no less.
Cain looks like he can go to 30% -- maybe 35% -- before he tops out.
Paul's 10% ain't goin' anywhere. Not up, not down.
Gingrich will likely creep up to 15%-or-so.
That leaves 20% for the don't know/don't care/somebody else crowd -- including Bachman, Santorum, Huntsman, Johnson, etc.
And nobody's even close to a majority -- unless Cain can somehow grab all of that latter group. Which isn't likely.
Nobody ever talks about it, but methinks we may go to convention without a candidate. And that presents a very interesting state of affairs. Imagine the establishment controlling the stage...but the Tea Party controlling the floor.
Cain is polling higher than that, or the opposition wouldn’t have sic’d Politico on him like they did.
Depends on where Cain’s cap is. He’s giving up about 10 percent name recognition to Romney, and is still outpolling him by 5 or so.
If it comes out 35 - 25 - 15 - 10 - 5 - 5 - 5, Cain just needs to nab 15 percent.
Cain at 35 + Gingrich at 15 would be 50 for a Cain/Gingrich ticket, and that’s probably enough.
Cain and Gingrich are also riding high in the second place showings, so it’s very likely that the other candidates will pitch to them.
Cain has to stay ahead of everyone on the conservative side, and get up to around 35 percent. Lots of work still for him to do, but he’s much closer now than a month an a half when he was at 4 percent.
Bachmann and Santorum need to drop out soon after Iowa results. They will be draining the margin necessary to overwhelm Romney. If they stay in too long, Romney could win because his supporters do not divide votes since there is no other candidate to the left of Romney.