[BenKenobi]

True, I’m assuming that it’s winner take all, and not looking at the margins. However:

1, Cain is up in the national polls. Presumably that means that he would gain proportionally more delegates than Romney.

2, Cain is second everywhere that he is not first. Romney is third right now in NC and TX. TX, especially is a problem for Romney, because if it’s proportionally awarded, than he’s going to lose considerable ground to Cain.

Cain does worse under winner take all, so that’s the measure that I am using, because I figure that if it’s the trailing rather than the leading indicator, it’s a good sign that he has truly overtaken Romney.

[okie01]

True, I’m assuming that it’s winner take all, and not looking at the margins.

Fair enough. So long as you're aware that it's directional, not definitive.