The only thing is the order of Iraq’s breakup into it’s component nationalities. I’m betting the Kurds are getting ready to split. They’re already feeling heat from Turkey, so they’re probably going to pull the Peshmerga forces back to defend the homeland. Nothing to fight for in Iraq any longer.
One of these days we’ll wake-up to reports of al Quds forces operating in the open in Basra.
There will be neighborhood violence in Baghdad. The Sunni’s will quickly back a “Strong-Man” in an effort to defend the center.
Question is: What can the US do once the split begins? Who do you back when there essentially is no Iraq?
I give it three to four years tops before the place goes all to hell in a handbasket. If true t will be dumped right in the lap of a Republican president and congress who will have to be the grownups and take measures to secure our interests in the region once again.