We can interpret events any number of ways. One of my interpretations is that Cain slips back and can't proceed due to monies. The leverage he builds along the way will strongarm Bachmann and especially Perry to the sidelines. Romney will be poised to win the nomination while Cain splits the more conservative vote. They like each other and Romney chooses Cain for his VP.
Of course you could say the same thing about Perry. He needs to get out so Cain can steam ahead. Only problem with that is money. Big big BIG money is needed for Cain to do anything. It isn't there and isn't likely to be there.
Perry has 14 million on hand. He is in til Florida, regardless of his polling.
There will be no split in the conservative vote.
It will be Cain versus Romney!!
Romney’s never been above 25% in the average in the past 5 years (he peaked at 24.6% in 2008 and he’s only at 23.9% now). He can’t win when 75% of the electorate doesn’t support him. And given that Romney’s already dead in the water he’s not likely to go anywhere. Meanwhile, Cain is surging and will likely get the conservative support from Gingrich, Santorum, Paul and Bachmann when they drop out. The pro-RINO voters who currently support Perry may go Romney’s way but with Perry barely in double-digits it won’t be enough.